The open seat created by incumbent Republican David Schweikert’s decision to run for Arizona governor has positioned Arizona’s 1st congressional district as a key swing contest in the 2026 midterms. Trader consensus reflects a Democratic edge at 68 percent implied probability, driven by recent polling showing strength for Democratic primary frontrunner Amish Shah and broader voter shifts in competitive Phoenix suburbs. Republican candidates including Joseph Chaplik face a fragmented primary field ahead of the July 21 contest, while the general election on November 3 remains highly competitive per nonpartisan ratings. Upcoming primaries and any late shifts in national midterm dynamics could still influence final positioning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
75%
Republican Party
32%
신규
신규
2026.11.04
Democratic Party
$165 거래량
75%
Republican Party
$296 거래량
32%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat created by incumbent Republican David Schweikert’s decision to run for Arizona governor has positioned Arizona’s 1st congressional district as a key swing contest in the 2026 midterms. Trader consensus reflects a Democratic edge at 68 percent implied probability, driven by recent polling showing strength for Democratic primary frontrunner Amish Shah and broader voter shifts in competitive Phoenix suburbs. Republican candidates including Joseph Chaplik face a fragmented primary field ahead of the July 21 contest, while the general election on November 3 remains highly competitive per nonpartisan ratings. Upcoming primaries and any late shifts in national midterm dynamics could still influence final positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ET
거래량
$460종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat created by incumbent Republican David Schweikert’s decision to run for Arizona governor has positioned Arizona’s 1st congressional district as a key swing contest in the 2026 midterms. Trader consensus reflects a Democratic edge at 68 percent implied probability, driven by recent polling showing strength for Democratic primary frontrunner Amish Shah and broader voter shifts in competitive Phoenix suburbs. Republican candidates including Joseph Chaplik face a fragmented primary field ahead of the July 21 contest, while the general election on November 3 remains highly competitive per nonpartisan ratings. Upcoming primaries and any late shifts in national midterm dynamics could still influence final positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$460종료일
2026.11.04마켓 개설일
Dec 16, 2025, 11:39 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat created by incumbent Republican David Schweikert’s decision to run for Arizona governor has positioned Arizona’s 1st congressional district as a key swing contest in the 2026 midterms. Trader consensus reflects a Democratic edge at 68 percent implied probability, driven by recent polling showing strength for Democratic primary frontrunner Amish Shah and broader voter shifts in competitive Phoenix suburbs. Republican candidates including Joseph Chaplik face a fragmented primary field ahead of the July 21 contest, while the general election on November 3 remains highly competitive per nonpartisan ratings. Upcoming primaries and any late shifts in national midterm dynamics could still influence final positioning.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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