Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027, driven by President Zelenskyy's repeated official rejections of territorial concessions, including his March 25 disclosure to Reuters that U.S. security guarantees were conditioned on relinquishing Donbas—a demand Kyiv firmly rebuffed. Recent U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva last month ended without progress on core territorial disputes, while April 1 discussions with U.S. negotiators yielded positive signals but no compromise amid Moscow's insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from eastern regions. Ukraine's constitutional commitment to territorial integrity, coupled with stalled ceasefire negotiations and divergent diplomatic postures, underpins traders' assessment that no such agreement materializes soon, despite war fatigue polls showing shifting public views.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
$539,625 Vol.
$539,625 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$539,625 Vol.
$539,625 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027, driven by President Zelenskyy's repeated official rejections of territorial concessions, including his March 25 disclosure to Reuters that U.S. security guarantees were conditioned on relinquishing Donbas—a demand Kyiv firmly rebuffed. Recent U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva last month ended without progress on core territorial disputes, while April 1 discussions with U.S. negotiators yielded positive signals but no compromise amid Moscow's insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from eastern regions. Ukraine's constitutional commitment to territorial integrity, coupled with stalled ceasefire negotiations and divergent diplomatic postures, underpins traders' assessment that no such agreement materializes soon, despite war fatigue polls showing shifting public views.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 4:38 PM ET
音量
$539,625終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027, driven by President Zelenskyy's repeated official rejections of territorial concessions, including his March 25 disclosure to Reuters that U.S. security guarantees were conditioned on relinquishing Donbas—a demand Kyiv firmly rebuffed. Recent U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva last month ended without progress on core territorial disputes, while April 1 discussions with U.S. negotiators yielded positive signals but no compromise amid Moscow's insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from eastern regions. Ukraine's constitutional commitment to territorial integrity, coupled with stalled ceasefire negotiations and divergent diplomatic postures, underpins traders' assessment that no such agreement materializes soon, despite war fatigue polls showing shifting public views.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
音量
$539,625終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 83.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027, driven by President Zelenskyy's repeated official rejections of territorial concessions, including his March 25 disclosure to Reuters that U.S. security guarantees were conditioned on relinquishing Donbas—a demand Kyiv firmly rebuffed. Recent U.S.-mediated talks in Geneva last month ended without progress on core territorial disputes, while April 1 discussions with U.S. negotiators yielded positive signals but no compromise amid Moscow's insistence on Ukrainian withdrawal from eastern regions. Ukraine's constitutional commitment to territorial integrity, coupled with stalled ceasefire negotiations and divergent diplomatic postures, underpins traders' assessment that no such agreement materializes soon, despite war fatigue polls showing shifting public views.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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