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地政学·トランプ大統領

米国は...によってベネズエラを侵略するのでしょうか？

Market icon
地政学·トランプ大統領

米国は...によってベネズエラを侵略するのでしょうか？

$14,117,406 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$14,117,406 Vol.

Polymarket

3月31日

$2,816,206 Vol.

<1%

12月31日

$168,317 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.In January 2026, the United States conducted targeted military strikes in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro without establishing control over any territory, prompting debate over whether this qualified as an invasion under market definitions requiring territorial occupation. Since then, trader consensus reflects low probabilities for further escalation, driven by the Trump administration's focus on legal actions—including threats to indict interim leader Delcy Rodríguez and additional charges against Maduro announced March 26—and efforts to reopen Venezuela's oil sector for U.S. access, as outlined in February State Department actions. No recent military buildups or diplomatic breakdowns signal ground invasion risks, with attention shifting to transitional governance and congressional oversight amid divided U.S. public opinion on next steps.

In January 2026, the United States conducted targeted military strikes in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro without establishing control over any territory, prompting debate over whether this qualified as an invasion under market definitions requiring territorial occupation. Since then, trader consensus reflects low probabilities for further escalation, driven by the Trump administration's focus on legal actions—including threats to indict interim leader Delcy Rodríguez and additional charges against Maduro announced March 26—and efforts to reopen Venezuela's oil sector for U.S. access, as outlined in February State Department actions. No recent military buildups or diplomatic breakdowns signal ground invasion risks, with attention shifting to transitional governance and congressional oversight amid divided U.S. public opinion on next steps.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.In January 2026, the United States conducted targeted military strikes in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro without establishing control over any territory, prompting debate over whether this qualified as an invasion under market definitions requiring territorial occupation. Since then, trader consensus reflects low probabilities for further escalation, driven by the Trump administration's focus on legal actions—including threats to indict interim leader Delcy Rodríguez and additional charges against Maduro announced March 26—and efforts to reopen Venezuela's oil sector for U.S. access, as outlined in February State Department actions. No recent military buildups or diplomatic breakdowns signal ground invasion risks, with attention shifting to transitional governance and congressional oversight amid divided U.S. public opinion on next steps.

In January 2026, the United States conducted targeted military strikes in Venezuela, capturing President Nicolás Maduro without establishing control over any territory, prompting debate over whether this qualified as an invasion under market definitions requiring territorial occupation. Since then, trader consensus reflects low probabilities for further escalation, driven by the Trump administration's focus on legal actions—including threats to indict interim leader Delcy Rodríguez and additional charges against Maduro announced March 26—and efforts to reopen Venezuela's oil sector for U.S. access, as outlined in February State Department actions. No recent military buildups or diplomatic breakdowns signal ground invasion risks, with attention shifting to transitional governance and congressional oversight amid divided U.S. public opinion on next steps.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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「米国は...によってベネズエラを侵略するのでしょうか？」はPolymarket上の4個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「12月31日」で14%、次いで「3月31日」が0%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、14¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に14%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「米国は...によってベネズエラを侵略するのでしょうか？」は$14.1 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Sep 6, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「米国は...によってベネズエラを侵略するのでしょうか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている4個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「米国は...によってベネズエラを侵略するのでしょうか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「12月31日」で14%であり、市場がこの結果に14%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「3月31日」で0%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「米国は...によってベネズエラを侵略するのでしょうか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。