Following the January 3, 2026, U.S. targeted military operation—Operation Absolute Resolve—that captured Nicolás Maduro via special forces and airstrikes without ground troop occupation or territorial control, deemed short of an invasion under market resolution criteria defining it as a military offensive to establish control over Venezuelan land, trader consensus reflects low implied probabilities for escalation. The March 5 State Department announcement of reestablished diplomatic and consular relations with interim authorities under Delcy Rodríguez, including embassy reopenings, oil sanctions relief, and over 600 political prisoner releases, signals de-escalation amid economic normalization and U.S. visits to Caracas. Transition uncertainties and potential elections could influence future foreign policy postures, but no further military actions have occurred in the past 30 days.