With no active tropical cyclones across all basins and the National Hurricane Center suspending routine Tropical Weather Outlooks until May 15, traders overwhelmingly back "No" at 94.7% implied probability for a hurricane landfall on the U.S. mainland by May 31. Cool Atlantic sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained intensification, combined with strong upper-level wind shear and dry Saharan air, suppress early-season development—a pattern reinforced by NOAA's El Niño Watch signaling potential atmospheric inhibition later in spring. Historical records confirm extreme rarity, with just two U.S. hurricane strikes in June since 1851 and none in May. AccuWeather's recent forecast anticipates 11-16 named storms starting June amid 3-5 U.S. impacts, but pre-season odds remain negligible. An unexpected warm-up or shear collapse could challenge this, though model consensus shows low risk; monitor May 15 NHC updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日はい
NEW
NEW
May 31, 2026
はい
NEW
NEW
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.With no active tropical cyclones across all basins and the National Hurricane Center suspending routine Tropical Weather Outlooks until May 15, traders overwhelmingly back "No" at 94.7% implied probability for a hurricane landfall on the U.S. mainland by May 31. Cool Atlantic sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained intensification, combined with strong upper-level wind shear and dry Saharan air, suppress early-season development—a pattern reinforced by NOAA's El Niño Watch signaling potential atmospheric inhibition later in spring. Historical records confirm extreme rarity, with just two U.S. hurricane strikes in June since 1851 and none in May. AccuWeather's recent forecast anticipates 11-16 named storms starting June amid 3-5 U.S. impacts, but pre-season odds remain negligible. An unexpected warm-up or shear collapse could challenge this, though model consensus shows low risk; monitor May 15 NHC updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
マーケット開始日： Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
音量
$9,194終了日
May 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.With no active tropical cyclones across all basins and the National Hurricane Center suspending routine Tropical Weather Outlooks until May 15, traders overwhelmingly back "No" at 94.7% implied probability for a hurricane landfall on the U.S. mainland by May 31. Cool Atlantic sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained intensification, combined with strong upper-level wind shear and dry Saharan air, suppress early-season development—a pattern reinforced by NOAA's El Niño Watch signaling potential atmospheric inhibition later in spring. Historical records confirm extreme rarity, with just two U.S. hurricane strikes in June since 1851 and none in May. AccuWeather's recent forecast anticipates 11-16 named storms starting June amid 3-5 U.S. impacts, but pre-season odds remain negligible. An unexpected warm-up or shear collapse could challenge this, though model consensus shows low risk; monitor May 15 NHC updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
音量
$9,194終了日
May 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...With no active tropical cyclones across all basins and the National Hurricane Center suspending routine Tropical Weather Outlooks until May 15, traders overwhelmingly back "No" at 94.7% implied probability for a hurricane landfall on the U.S. mainland by May 31. Cool Atlantic sea surface temperatures below the 26.5°C threshold for sustained intensification, combined with strong upper-level wind shear and dry Saharan air, suppress early-season development—a pattern reinforced by NOAA's El Niño Watch signaling potential atmospheric inhibition later in spring. Historical records confirm extreme rarity, with just two U.S. hurricane strikes in June since 1851 and none in May. AccuWeather's recent forecast anticipates 11-16 named storms starting June amid 3-5 U.S. impacts, but pre-season odds remain negligible. An unexpected warm-up or shear collapse could challenge this, though model consensus shows low risk; monitor May 15 NHC updates.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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