Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads trader consensus at 58% implied probability as the next Trump Cabinet departure, fueled by escalating scandals including top aides' resignations in early March amid inspector general probes into alleged travel fraud, misuse of department funds, and a hostile workplace. Her bodyguard quit on March 20 following affair claims, while earlier reports detailed her husband's ban from the Labor building over staff assault allegations and questions over a taxpayer-funded birthday event she denied to Congress. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (15.5%) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (10%) trail amid their own confirmation-era controversies, but lack fresh catalysts; DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's March exit marks the administration's first Cabinet turnover after a stable initial year, heightening expectations for more amid ongoing investigations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日ローリ・チャベス＝デリマー 58%
トゥルシ・ギャバード 15.4%
ピート・ヘグセス 9.8%
2027年以前はなし 6.6%
$2,535,290 Vol.
$2,535,290 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
ローリ・チャベス＝デリマー
58%
トゥルシ・ギャバード
15%
ピート・ヘグセス
10%
2027年以前はなし
7%
ハワード・ラトニック
2%
ブルック・ローリンズ
2%
J.D.バンス
1%
ラッセル・T・ヴォート
1%
スコット・ベッセント
1%
ダグ・バーガム
1%
パム・ボンディ
1%
マルコ・ルビオ
1%
スコット・ターナー
1%
スージー・ワイルズ
1%
ショーン・ダフィー
1%
ジャミーソン・グリアー
1%
マイク・ウォルツ
1%
ダグ・コリンズ
1%
ケリー・ロフラー
1%
リー・ゼルディン
1%
ジョン・ラトクリフ
1%
クリス・ライト
1%
ロバート・F・ケネディ・ジュニア
<1%
リンダ・マクマホン
<1%
ローリ・チャベス＝デリマー 58%
トゥルシ・ギャバード 15.4%
ピート・ヘグセス 9.8%
2027年以前はなし 6.6%
$2,535,290 Vol.
$2,535,290 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
ローリ・チャベス＝デリマー
$74,809 Vol.
58%
トゥルシ・ギャバード
$727,417 Vol.
15%
ピート・ヘグセス
$676,956 Vol.
10%
2027年以前はなし
$757,331 Vol.
7%
ハワード・ラトニック
$26,301 Vol.
2%
ブルック・ローリンズ
$6,824 Vol.
2%
J.D.バンス
$7,271 Vol.
1%
ラッセル・T・ヴォート
$4,200 Vol.
1%
スコット・ベッセント
$4,627 Vol.
1%
ダグ・バーガム
$6,119 Vol.
1%
パム・ボンディ
$4,182 Vol.
1%
マルコ・ルビオ
$50,625 Vol.
1%
スコット・ターナー
$5,701 Vol.
1%
スージー・ワイルズ
$4,916 Vol.
1%
ショーン・ダフィー
$67,324 Vol.
1%
ジャミーソン・グリアー
$4,901 Vol.
1%
マイク・ウォルツ
$4,858 Vol.
1%
ダグ・コリンズ
$3,581 Vol.
1%
ケリー・ロフラー
$4,014 Vol.
1%
リー・ゼルディン
$71,083 Vol.
1%
ジョン・ラトクリフ
$4,201 Vol.
1%
クリス・ライト
$4,133 Vol.
1%
ロバート・F・ケネディ・ジュニア
$3,619 Vol.
<1%
リンダ・マクマホン
$10,298 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads trader consensus at 58% implied probability as the next Trump Cabinet departure, fueled by escalating scandals including top aides' resignations in early March amid inspector general probes into alleged travel fraud, misuse of department funds, and a hostile workplace. Her bodyguard quit on March 20 following affair claims, while earlier reports detailed her husband's ban from the Labor building over staff assault allegations and questions over a taxpayer-funded birthday event she denied to Congress. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (15.5%) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (10%) trail amid their own confirmation-era controversies, but lack fresh catalysts; DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's March exit marks the administration's first Cabinet turnover after a stable initial year, heightening expectations for more amid ongoing investigations.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
音量
$2,535,290終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads trader consensus at 58% implied probability as the next Trump Cabinet departure, fueled by escalating scandals including top aides' resignations in early March amid inspector general probes into alleged travel fraud, misuse of department funds, and a hostile workplace. Her bodyguard quit on March 20 following affair claims, while earlier reports detailed her husband's ban from the Labor building over staff assault allegations and questions over a taxpayer-funded birthday event she denied to Congress. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (15.5%) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (10%) trail amid their own confirmation-era controversies, but lack fresh catalysts; DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's March exit marks the administration's first Cabinet turnover after a stable initial year, heightening expectations for more amid ongoing investigations.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
音量
$2,535,290終了日
Dec 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads trader consensus at 58% implied probability as the next Trump Cabinet departure, fueled by escalating scandals including top aides' resignations in early March amid inspector general probes into alleged travel fraud, misuse of department funds, and a hostile workplace. Her bodyguard quit on March 20 following affair claims, while earlier reports detailed her husband's ban from the Labor building over staff assault allegations and questions over a taxpayer-funded birthday event she denied to Congress. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard (15.5%) and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth (10%) trail amid their own confirmation-era controversies, but lack fresh catalysts; DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's March exit marks the administration's first Cabinet turnover after a stable initial year, heightening expectations for more amid ongoing investigations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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