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選挙·上院

Next Senate Majority Leader?

Market icon
選挙·上院

Next Senate Majority Leader?

John Thune 23%

Chuck Schumer 18%

Lindsey Graham 5.5%

Brian Schatz 5%

Polymarket

$29,171 Vol.

John Thune 23%

Chuck Schumer 18%

Lindsey Graham 5.5%

Brian Schatz 5%

Polymarket

$29,171 Vol.

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John Thune

$266 Vol.

30%

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Chuck Schumer

$275 Vol.

18%

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Lindsey Graham

$8,314 Vol.

6%

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Brian Schatz

$347 Vol.

5%

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Cory Booker

$405 Vol.

5%

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John Barrasso

$297 Vol.

5%

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Tom Cotton

$192 Vol.

5%

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Mark Kelly

$629 Vol.

4%

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Steve Daines

$18,011 Vol.

4%

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Patty Murray

$87 Vol.

4%

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Amy Klobuchar

$348 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.Trader consensus reflects a tossup for Senate control after the November 2026 midterms, with related markets pricing Republicans at around 49.5% to retain their 53-seat majority, positioning incumbent Majority Leader John Thune at 29.5% as the frontrunner due to his prior experience as whip and broad establishment support within the GOP caucus. Thune differentiates from challengers like Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally with foreign policy prominence, and Whip John Barrasso through his institutional continuity amid a stable Republican map defending fewer competitive seats. On the Democratic side, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer trails at 17.5% amid recent caucus frustrations over his negotiating style, with reports in the past week of senators quietly discussing ousting him post-election and his 2026 recruits declining to back his leadership—elevating alternatives like Brian Schatz, policy chair, and Cory Booker. Primaries through summer and evolving battleground polls in races like North Carolina could tip momentum and consolidate support behind one contender.

Trader consensus reflects a tossup for Senate control after the November 2026 midterms, with related markets pricing Republicans at around 49.5% to retain their 53-seat majority, positioning incumbent Majority Leader John Thune at 29.5% as the frontrunner due to his prior experience as whip and broad establishment support within the GOP caucus. Thune differentiates from challengers like Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally with foreign policy prominence, and Whip John Barrasso through his institutional continuity amid a stable Republican map defending fewer competitive seats. On the Democratic side, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer trails at 17.5% amid recent caucus frustrations over his negotiating style, with reports in the past week of senators quietly discussing ousting him post-election and his 2026 recruits declining to back his leadership—elevating alternatives like Brian Schatz, policy chair, and Cory Booker. Primaries through summer and evolving battleground polls in races like North Carolina could tip momentum and consolidate support behind one contender.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
This market will resolve according to the individual who is announced as the next Senate Majority Leader after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. This market will remain open until January 3, 2027, at which point it will resolve based on the first announcement of the next Senate Majority Leader from whichever party holds the majority in the U.S. Senate. If no Majority is established and a leader is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.Trader consensus reflects a tossup for Senate control after the November 2026 midterms, with related markets pricing Republicans at around 49.5% to retain their 53-seat majority, positioning incumbent Majority Leader John Thune at 29.5% as the frontrunner due to his prior experience as whip and broad establishment support within the GOP caucus. Thune differentiates from challengers like Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally with foreign policy prominence, and Whip John Barrasso through his institutional continuity amid a stable Republican map defending fewer competitive seats. On the Democratic side, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer trails at 17.5% amid recent caucus frustrations over his negotiating style, with reports in the past week of senators quietly discussing ousting him post-election and his 2026 recruits declining to back his leadership—elevating alternatives like Brian Schatz, policy chair, and Cory Booker. Primaries through summer and evolving battleground polls in races like North Carolina could tip momentum and consolidate support behind one contender.

Trader consensus reflects a tossup for Senate control after the November 2026 midterms, with related markets pricing Republicans at around 49.5% to retain their 53-seat majority, positioning incumbent Majority Leader John Thune at 29.5% as the frontrunner due to his prior experience as whip and broad establishment support within the GOP caucus. Thune differentiates from challengers like Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally with foreign policy prominence, and Whip John Barrasso through his institutional continuity amid a stable Republican map defending fewer competitive seats. On the Democratic side, Minority Leader Chuck Schumer trails at 17.5% amid recent caucus frustrations over his negotiating style, with reports in the past week of senators quietly discussing ousting him post-election and his 2026 recruits declining to back his leadership—elevating alternatives like Brian Schatz, policy chair, and Cory Booker. Primaries through summer and evolving battleground polls in races like North Carolina could tip momentum and consolidate support behind one contender.

Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日

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よくある質問

「Next Senate Majority Leader?」はPolymarket上の11個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「John Thune」で30%、次いで「Chuck Schumer」が18%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、30¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に30%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「Next Senate Majority Leader?」は$29.2Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 23, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「Next Senate Majority Leader?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている11個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「Next Senate Majority Leader?」の現在のフロントランナーは「John Thune」で30%であり、市場がこの結果に30%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「Chuck Schumer」で18%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「Next Senate Majority Leader?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。