Following its record-shattering $97 million domestic opening weekend—the largest ever for a musical biopic—"Michael" has shown impressive early legs with a $7.7 million Monday and $11.1 million Tuesday, the fourth-best April Tuesday for a live-action film, buoyed by an A- CinemaScore and audience enthusiasm for high-energy concert sequences despite a dismal 38% Rotten Tomatoes score. Trader consensus clusters around a 45-55% sophomore frame drop to $45-55 million, pitting 50-55m (36.5%) against >55m (35%) and 45-50m (31.5%), as strong word-of-mouth and IMAX premium holdover appeal battle new competition from Disney's female-led tentpole. A Bohemian Rhapsody-like sub-50% drop could push toward $55 million-plus, with Sunday estimates as the key swing factor.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日「マイケル」第2週末興行収入
「マイケル」第2週末興行収入
4500万〜5000万 48%
5000万〜5500万 37%
>5,500万 30%
4000万〜4500万 26%
新規
新規
2026/05/04
3,500万未満
7%
3,500万～4,000万
10%
4000万〜4500万
26%
4500万〜5000万
31%
5000万〜5500万
37%
>5,500万
35%
4500万〜5000万 48%
5000万〜5500万 37%
>5,500万 30%
4000万〜4500万 26%
新規
新規
2026/05/04
3,500万未満
$0 Vol.
7%
3,500万～4,000万
$0 Vol.
10%
4000万〜4500万
$100 Vol.
26%
4500万〜5000万
$4 Vol.
31%
5000万〜5500万
$0 Vol.
37%
>5,500万
$50 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Following its record-shattering $97 million domestic opening weekend—the largest ever for a musical biopic—"Michael" has shown impressive early legs with a $7.7 million Monday and $11.1 million Tuesday, the fourth-best April Tuesday for a live-action film, buoyed by an A- CinemaScore and audience enthusiasm for high-energy concert sequences despite a dismal 38% Rotten Tomatoes score. Trader consensus clusters around a 45-55% sophomore frame drop to $45-55 million, pitting 50-55m (36.5%) against >55m (35%) and 45-50m (31.5%), as strong word-of-mouth and IMAX premium holdover appeal battle new competition from Disney's female-led tentpole. A Bohemian Rhapsody-like sub-50% drop could push toward $55 million-plus, with Sunday estimates as the key swing factor.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 11:26 AM ET
音量
$154終了日
2026/05/04マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 11:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Following its record-shattering $97 million domestic opening weekend—the largest ever for a musical biopic—"Michael" has shown impressive early legs with a $7.7 million Monday and $11.1 million Tuesday, the fourth-best April Tuesday for a live-action film, buoyed by an A- CinemaScore and audience enthusiasm for high-energy concert sequences despite a dismal 38% Rotten Tomatoes score. Trader consensus clusters around a 45-55% sophomore frame drop to $45-55 million, pitting 50-55m (36.5%) against >55m (35%) and 45-50m (31.5%), as strong word-of-mouth and IMAX premium holdover appeal battle new competition from Disney's female-led tentpole. A Bohemian Rhapsody-like sub-50% drop could push toward $55 million-plus, with Sunday estimates as the key swing factor.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its second weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 1 - May 3) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 10, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
音量
$154終了日
2026/05/04マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 11:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Following its record-shattering $97 million domestic opening weekend—the largest ever for a musical biopic—"Michael" has shown impressive early legs with a $7.7 million Monday and $11.1 million Tuesday, the fourth-best April Tuesday for a live-action film, buoyed by an A- CinemaScore and audience enthusiasm for high-energy concert sequences despite a dismal 38% Rotten Tomatoes score. Trader consensus clusters around a 45-55% sophomore frame drop to $45-55 million, pitting 50-55m (36.5%) against >55m (35%) and 45-50m (31.5%), as strong word-of-mouth and IMAX premium holdover appeal battle new competition from Disney's female-led tentpole. A Bohemian Rhapsody-like sub-50% drop could push toward $55 million-plus, with Sunday estimates as the key swing factor.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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