Intensified Israel-Hezbollah clashes have driven recent airstrikes on Beirut's southern Dahiyeh suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, including the September 27 assassination of leader Hassan Nasrallah and October 11 killing of commander Ali Karaki, anchoring trader consensus on escalation risks. Israel's limited ground incursion into southern Lebanon since October 1 aims to dismantle cross-border rocket threats following Hezbollah's barrages, with daily exchanges persisting amid civilian evacuations and over 1,400 Lebanese deaths reported. US-France ceasefire proposals for a 60-day truce face hurdles over Israeli demands for Hezbollah disarmament north of the Litani River, while upcoming UN Security Council discussions and potential Israeli cabinet votes could signal de-escalation or further Beirut operations before any resolution deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日$68,560 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 24
58%
March 26
74%
March 27
68%
March 28
60%
March 29
46%
March 30
50%
March 31
44%
$68,560 Vol.
March 24
$30,351 Vol.
58%
March 26
$8,032 Vol.
74%
March 27
$1,387 Vol.
68%
March 28
$71 Vol.
60%
March 29
$0 Vol.
46%
March 30
$0 Vol.
50%
March 31
$94 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
マーケット開始日： Mar 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
音量
$68,560終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Greater Beirut on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact within Greater Beirut.
For the purposes of this market, “Greater Beirut” refers to the continuous urbanized zone that encompasses all of the Beirut Governorate and the adjacent coastal and suburban municipalities of the Mount Lebanon Governorate. For this market, the geographic boundaries as defined in the map “Location of the Greater Beirut Area” (https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Beirut-3ffb23044f.png) from Faour & Mhawej (2014), Mapping Urban Transitions in the Greater Beirut Area Using Different Space Platforms (https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/3/3/941) will be used. If the precise location of a strike cannot be clearly attributed to the defined territory based on the referenced map, it will not qualify.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the specified territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
音量
$68,560終了日
Mar 31, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Intensified Israel-Hezbollah clashes have driven recent airstrikes on Beirut's southern Dahiyeh suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, including the September 27 assassination of leader Hassan Nasrallah and October 11 killing of commander Ali Karaki, anchoring trader consensus on escalation risks. Israel's limited ground incursion into southern Lebanon since October 1 aims to dismantle cross-border rocket threats following Hezbollah's barrages, with daily exchanges persisting amid civilian evacuations and over 1,400 Lebanese deaths reported. US-France ceasefire proposals for a 60-day truce face hurdles over Israeli demands for Hezbollah disarmament north of the Litani River, while upcoming UN Security Council discussions and potential Israeli cabinet votes could signal de-escalation or further Beirut operations before any resolution deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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