Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight contest between 2.25%-2.99% (35.5% implied probability) and 4.50%+ (32.5%), driven by February 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to a 10-month high of 3.21% year-over-year—up from 2.74% in January—amid rising food inflation at 3.47%, despite vegetable price declines. Reserve Bank of India’s February Monetary Policy Committee projections anchor optimism with FY2026 average CPI at 2.1% (Q4 at 3.2%), citing stable core inflation around 2.6%, but upside risks from geopolitical oil disruptions and food volatility temper bets. Key differentiators include March CPI data due April 13 and the April RBI meeting, which could signal rate path shifts amid 5.25% repo rate pause.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日2.25%から2.99% 31%
4.50%以上 31%
3.75%~4.49% 13%
1.50%から2.24% 12%
$57,251 Vol.
$57,251 Vol.
0.75%未満
10%
0.75%〜1.49%
4%
1.50%から2.24%
12%
2.25%から2.99%
31%
3.00%~3.74%
11%
3.75%~4.49%
13%
4.50%以上
31%
2.25%から2.99% 31%
4.50%以上 31%
3.75%~4.49% 13%
1.50%から2.24% 12%
$57,251 Vol.
$57,251 Vol.
0.75%未満
10%
0.75%〜1.49%
4%
1.50%から2.24%
12%
2.25%から2.99%
31%
3.00%~3.74%
11%
3.75%~4.49%
13%
4.50%以上
31%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
マーケット開始日: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a tight contest between 2.25%-2.99% (35.5% implied probability) and 4.50%+ (32.5%), driven by February 2026 CPI inflation accelerating to a 10-month high of 3.21% year-over-year—up from 2.74% in January—amid rising food inflation at 3.47%, despite vegetable price declines. Reserve Bank of India’s February Monetary Policy Committee projections anchor optimism with FY2026 average CPI at 2.1% (Q4 at 3.2%), citing stable core inflation around 2.6%, but upside risks from geopolitical oil disruptions and food volatility temper bets. Key differentiators include March CPI data due April 13 and the April RBI meeting, which could signal rate path shifts amid 5.25% repo rate pause.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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