Recent polls from independent firms like 21 Kutatóközpont and Medián, conducted in late March 2026, show Péter Magyar's centre-right Tisza party leading Viktor Orbán's incumbent Fidesz-KDNP alliance by 13–23 points among decided voters ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, fueling trader bets on a potential Tisza first-place finish. However, market consensus prices Fidesz-KDNP at 70% implied probability for second place, reflecting skepticism over polls due to Fidesz's entrenched advantages in Hungary's mixed electoral system—including gerrymandered single-member districts, dominant state media control, and superior rural turnout mobilization—which have secured supermajorities in past elections despite close popular vote margins. Smaller opposition parties trail far behind, with no recent momentum. Final undecided voter shifts and campaign closing arguments could tip the balance in the nine days remaining.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Hungary Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
Hungary Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
Fidesz-KDNP 70%
TISZA 30%
MSZP <1%
LMP <1%
$85,433 Vol.
$85,433 Vol.
2026/04/12
Fidesz-KDNP
70%
TISZA
30%
MSZP
<1%
LMP
<1%
Mi Hazánk
<1%
DK
<1%
Momentum
<1%
Párbeszéd
<1%
Jobbik
<1%
Fidesz-KDNP 70%
TISZA 30%
MSZP <1%
LMP <1%
$85,433 Vol.
$85,433 Vol.
2026/04/12
Fidesz-KDNP
$16,671 Vol.
70%
TISZA
$15,038 Vol.
30%
MSZP
$13,764 Vol.
<1%
LMP
$2,596 Vol.
<1%
Mi Hazánk
$27,148 Vol.
<1%
DK
$2,962 Vol.
<1%
Momentum
$2,271 Vol.
<1%
Párbeszéd
$2,536 Vol.
<1%
Jobbik
$2,447 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Recent polls from independent firms like 21 Kutatóközpont and Medián, conducted in late March 2026, show Péter Magyar's centre-right Tisza party leading Viktor Orbán's incumbent Fidesz-KDNP alliance by 13–23 points among decided voters ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, fueling trader bets on a potential Tisza first-place finish. However, market consensus prices Fidesz-KDNP at 70% implied probability for second place, reflecting skepticism over polls due to Fidesz's entrenched advantages in Hungary's mixed electoral system—including gerrymandered single-member districts, dominant state media control, and superior rural turnout mobilization—which have secured supermajorities in past elections despite close popular vote margins. Smaller opposition parties trail far behind, with no recent momentum. Final undecided voter shifts and campaign closing arguments could tip the balance in the nine days remaining.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
マーケット開始日： Mar 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ET
音量
$85,433終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.Recent polls from independent firms like 21 Kutatóközpont and Medián, conducted in late March 2026, show Péter Magyar's centre-right Tisza party leading Viktor Orbán's incumbent Fidesz-KDNP alliance by 13–23 points among decided voters ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, fueling trader bets on a potential Tisza first-place finish. However, market consensus prices Fidesz-KDNP at 70% implied probability for second place, reflecting skepticism over polls due to Fidesz's entrenched advantages in Hungary's mixed electoral system—including gerrymandered single-member districts, dominant state media control, and superior rural turnout mobilization—which have secured supermajorities in past elections despite close popular vote margins. Smaller opposition parties trail far behind, with no recent momentum. Final undecided voter shifts and campaign closing arguments could tip the balance in the nine days remaining.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on 12 April 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Hungarian Parliament. If a named coalition dissolves, this market will resolve based on the seat total of the constituent party within that coalition that held the largest number of seats before the election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Note: Fidesz and KDNP registered jointly for the 2026 Hungary parliamentary elections (see: https://vtr.valasztas.hu/ogy2026/orszagos-listak?tab=partlistak). If the Fidesz-KDNP coalition dissolves prior to the election, this option will represent only seats won by Fidesz.
音量
$85,433終了日
2026/04/12マーケット開始日
Mar 23, 2026, 1:52 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls from independent firms like 21 Kutatóközpont and Medián, conducted in late March 2026, show Péter Magyar's centre-right Tisza party leading Viktor Orbán's incumbent Fidesz-KDNP alliance by 13–23 points among decided voters ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, fueling trader bets on a potential Tisza first-place finish. However, market consensus prices Fidesz-KDNP at 70% implied probability for second place, reflecting skepticism over polls due to Fidesz's entrenched advantages in Hungary's mixed electoral system—including gerrymandered single-member districts, dominant state media control, and superior rural turnout mobilization—which have secured supermajorities in past elections despite close popular vote margins. Smaller opposition parties trail far behind, with no recent momentum. Final undecided voter shifts and campaign closing arguments could tip the balance in the nine days remaining.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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