Trader consensus favors 20-24 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29 at 35% implied probability, driven by persistent disruptions from the ongoing regional conflict that slashed daily vessel traffic from a pre-crisis average of 130-138 to 3-6 amid Iran's selective clearances and multimillion-dollar transit fees for approved ships, mostly sanctioned tankers. Maritime trackers like Windward and Lloyd's List confirm critically low flows, including just seven commercial vessels over March 25-26 and four (two LPG tankers, two bulk carriers) via the Iranian corridor on March 28, with two Indian LPG carriers and one Pakistani vessel also passing safely. Higher brackets like 30-34 (22.5%) account for slight upticks in recent days, while IMF Portwatch data will finalize resolution; no surge expected absent de-escalation signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日20-24 35%
30-34 22%
25-29 20%
15-19 11%
$20,802 Vol.
$20,802 Vol.
Mar 29, 2026
<10
2%
10-14
1%
15-19
11%
20-24
35%
25-29
20%
30-34
22%
35-39
8%
40-44
7%
45+
8%
20-24 35%
30-34 22%
25-29 20%
15-19 11%
$20,802 Vol.
$20,802 Vol.
Mar 29, 2026
<10
$3,101 Vol.
2%
10-14
$3,115 Vol.
1%
15-19
$2,301 Vol.
11%
20-24
$2,990 Vol.
35%
25-29
$1,427 Vol.
20%
30-34
$1,653 Vol.
22%
35-39
$1,791 Vol.
8%
40-44
$1,449 Vol.
7%
45+
$2,974 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus favors 20-24 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29 at 35% implied probability, driven by persistent disruptions from the ongoing regional conflict that slashed daily vessel traffic from a pre-crisis average of 130-138 to 3-6 amid Iran's selective clearances and multimillion-dollar transit fees for approved ships, mostly sanctioned tankers. Maritime trackers like Windward and Lloyd's List confirm critically low flows, including just seven commercial vessels over March 25-26 and four (two LPG tankers, two bulk carriers) via the Iranian corridor on March 28, with two Indian LPG carriers and one Pakistani vessel also passing safely. Higher brackets like 30-34 (22.5%) account for slight upticks in recent days, while IMF Portwatch data will finalize resolution; no surge expected absent de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： Mar 26, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
音量
$20,802終了日
Mar 29, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 26, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus favors 20-24 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29 at 35% implied probability, driven by persistent disruptions from the ongoing regional conflict that slashed daily vessel traffic from a pre-crisis average of 130-138 to 3-6 amid Iran's selective clearances and multimillion-dollar transit fees for approved ships, mostly sanctioned tankers. Maritime trackers like Windward and Lloyd's List confirm critically low flows, including just seven commercial vessels over March 25-26 and four (two LPG tankers, two bulk carriers) via the Iranian corridor on March 28, with two Indian LPG carriers and one Pakistani vessel also passing safely. Higher brackets like 30-34 (22.5%) account for slight upticks in recent days, while IMF Portwatch data will finalize resolution; no surge expected absent de-escalation signals.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$20,802終了日
Mar 29, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 26, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors 20-24 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29 at 35% implied probability, driven by persistent disruptions from the ongoing regional conflict that slashed daily vessel traffic from a pre-crisis average of 130-138 to 3-6 amid Iran's selective clearances and multimillion-dollar transit fees for approved ships, mostly sanctioned tankers. Maritime trackers like Windward and Lloyd's List confirm critically low flows, including just seven commercial vessels over March 25-26 and four (two LPG tankers, two bulk carriers) via the Iranian corridor on March 28, with two Indian LPG carriers and one Pakistani vessel also passing safely. Higher brackets like 30-34 (22.5%) account for slight upticks in recent days, while IMF Portwatch data will finalize resolution; no surge expected absent de-escalation signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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