Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 15-19 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 at 54%, with 20-24 at 37.5%, reflecting severely suppressed maritime traffic amid the US-Iran conflict escalation since late February 2026. Iranian naval forces have imposed selective inspections, permitting only approved vessels—often Iranian or China-linked—while threats from mines, unmanned surface vessels, and attacks have slashed daily transits to 1-6, per UANI, Windward, and Lloyd's List Intelligence reports. Windward noted just 16 AIS-visible crossings the prior week ending March 22, a 95% drop from pre-conflict norms of ~1,000 weekly, building massive backlogs in the Gulf of Oman. Official IMF PortWatch transit calls for container ships, tankers, dry bulk, and general cargo will resolve the market.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日15-19 54.0%
20-24 37.5%
25-29 3.8%
10-14 <1%
$392,124 Vol.
$392,124 Vol.
Mar 23, 2026
<10
<1%
10-14
1%
15-19
54%
20-24
38%
25-29
4%
30-34
1%
35-39
<1%
40-44
<1%
45+
1%
15-19 54.0%
20-24 37.5%
25-29 3.8%
10-14 <1%
$392,124 Vol.
$392,124 Vol.
Mar 23, 2026
<10
$52,723 Vol.
<1%
10-14
$35,765 Vol.
1%
15-19
$42,693 Vol.
54%
20-24
$35,943 Vol.
38%
25-29
$24,208 Vol.
4%
30-34
$21,970 Vol.
1%
35-39
$32,545 Vol.
<1%
40-44
$48,029 Vol.
<1%
45+
$98,247 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 15-19 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 at 54%, with 20-24 at 37.5%, reflecting severely suppressed maritime traffic amid the US-Iran conflict escalation since late February 2026. Iranian naval forces have imposed selective inspections, permitting only approved vessels—often Iranian or China-linked—while threats from mines, unmanned surface vessels, and attacks have slashed daily transits to 1-6, per UANI, Windward, and Lloyd's List Intelligence reports. Windward noted just 16 AIS-visible crossings the prior week ending March 22, a 95% drop from pre-conflict norms of ~1,000 weekly, building massive backlogs in the Gulf of Oman. Official IMF PortWatch transit calls for container ships, tankers, dry bulk, and general cargo will resolve the market.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
音量
$392,124終了日
Mar 23, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 15-19 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 at 54%, with 20-24 at 37.5%, reflecting severely suppressed maritime traffic amid the US-Iran conflict escalation since late February 2026. Iranian naval forces have imposed selective inspections, permitting only approved vessels—often Iranian or China-linked—while threats from mines, unmanned surface vessels, and attacks have slashed daily transits to 1-6, per UANI, Windward, and Lloyd's List Intelligence reports. Windward noted just 16 AIS-visible crossings the prior week ending March 22, a 95% drop from pre-conflict norms of ~1,000 weekly, building massive backlogs in the Gulf of Oman. Official IMF PortWatch transit calls for container ships, tankers, dry bulk, and general cargo will resolve the market.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$392,124終了日
Mar 23, 2026マーケット開始日
Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 15-19 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 at 54%, with 20-24 at 37.5%, reflecting severely suppressed maritime traffic amid the US-Iran conflict escalation since late February 2026. Iranian naval forces have imposed selective inspections, permitting only approved vessels—often Iranian or China-linked—while threats from mines, unmanned surface vessels, and attacks have slashed daily transits to 1-6, per UANI, Windward, and Lloyd's List Intelligence reports. Windward noted just 16 AIS-visible crossings the prior week ending March 22, a 95% drop from pre-conflict norms of ~1,000 weekly, building massive backlogs in the Gulf of Oman. Official IMF PortWatch transit calls for container ships, tankers, dry bulk, and general cargo will resolve the market.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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