Recent polls from Datafolha, CNT/MDA, and Nexus/BTG Pactual over the past week show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro virtually tied in simulated first-round and runoff scenarios for Brazil's October 4 presidential election, with margins under 5 points and Lula's approval dipping to 44% amid economic pressures and governance critiques. This trader consensus of near-even odds reflects Flávio's surge as the right-wing heir to his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro, consolidating conservative support while Lula holds leftist incumbency advantages in key regions. The race remains tight due to polarized voting blocs and low undecideds; separation could arise from upcoming debates, fresh economic data like inflation reports, coalition endorsements, or scandals before the first round.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 40%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 39.3%
レナン・サントス 6.3%
フェルナンド・ハダジ 4.3%
$53,276,117 Vol.
$53,276,117 Vol.
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ
40%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
39%
レナン・サントス
6%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
4%
ロメウ・ゼマ
3%
カミロ・サンタナ
2%
ロナウド・カイアド
2%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
1%
ジャイール・ボルソナロ
1%
ジェラウド・アルクミン
<1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
<1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
<1%
アルド・レベロ
<1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
<1%
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ 40%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ 39.3%
レナン・サントス 6.3%
フェルナンド・ハダジ 4.3%
$53,276,117 Vol.
$53,276,117 Vol.
ルイス・イナシオ・ルラ・ダ・シルヴァ
40%
フラヴィオ・ボルソナロ
39%
レナン・サントス
6%
フェルナンド・ハダジ
4%
ロメウ・ゼマ
3%
カミロ・サンタナ
2%
ロナウド・カイアド
2%
ミシェル・ボルソナロ
1%
ジャイール・ボルソナロ
1%
ジェラウド・アルクミン
<1%
タルシジオ・デ・フレイタス
<1%
エドゥアルド・ボルソナロ
<1%
アルド・レベロ
<1%
エドゥアルド・レイチ
<1%
ハチーニョ・ジュニオール
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
マーケット開始日： Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from Datafolha, CNT/MDA, and Nexus/BTG Pactual over the past week show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro virtually tied in simulated first-round and runoff scenarios for Brazil's October 4 presidential election, with margins under 5 points and Lula's approval dipping to 44% amid economic pressures and governance critiques. This trader consensus of near-even odds reflects Flávio's surge as the right-wing heir to his ineligible father Jair Bolsonaro, consolidating conservative support while Lula holds leftist incumbency advantages in key regions. The race remains tight due to polarized voting blocs and low undecideds; separation could arise from upcoming debates, fresh economic data like inflation reports, coalition endorsements, or scandals before the first round.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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