balthazar

参加しました 1月 2025·36.4K views

$330.6K

ポジション値

$107.5K

最大の勝利

85,210

取引した市場

総損益: +$1.1M
総取引高: 75.6M

損益

$5,106.08

過去1日

市場

平均

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

No 50¢

51,000.0 株

50¢

90.5¢

$46,155.00$20,655.00 (81%)

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

No 50¢

51,000.0 株

$46,155.00$20,655.00 (81%)

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 85¢

38,717.2 株

85¢

76.4¢

$29,599.28-$3,320.85 (-10.09%)

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Yes 85¢

38,717.2 株

$29,599.28-$3,320.85 (-10.09%)

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 77.8¢

17,804.2 株

77.8¢

87¢

$15,480.72$1,634.90 (11.81%)

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 77.8¢

17,804.2 株

$15,480.72$1,634.90 (11.81%)

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Yes 81.5¢

14,748.3 株

81.5¢

78.5¢

$11,577.44-$438.54 (-3.65%)

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Yes 81.5¢

14,748.3 株

$11,577.44-$438.54 (-3.65%)

Trump meets with Putin by December 31?

Yes 69.5¢

12,330.5 株

69.5¢

76.5¢

$9,432.82$859.50 (10.03%)

Trump meets with Putin by December 31?

Yes 69.5¢

12,330.5 株

$9,432.82$859.50 (10.03%)

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Yes 11.1¢

44,141.2 株

11.1¢

19.5¢

$8,607.54$3,699.48 (75.38%)

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?

Yes 11.1¢

44,141.2 株

$8,607.54$3,699.48 (75.38%)

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?

Yes 63.8¢

6,892.0 株

63.8¢

91.5¢

$6,306.22$1,909.55 (43.43%)

Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026?

Yes 63.8¢

6,892.0 株

$6,306.22$1,909.55 (43.43%)

Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

Yes 33.7¢

8,655.9 株

33.7¢

69.5¢

$6,015.84$3,101.74 (106.44%)

Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

Yes 33.7¢

8,655.9 株

$6,015.84$3,101.74 (106.44%)

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Yes 61.7¢

6,598.3 株

61.7¢

86.5¢

$5,707.56$1,635.75 (40.17%)

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Yes 61.7¢

6,598.3 株

$5,707.56$1,635.75 (40.17%)

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Yes 50¢

51,000.0 株

50¢

9.5¢

$4,845.00-$20,655.00 (-81%)

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Yes 50¢

51,000.0 株

$4,845.00-$20,655.00 (-81%)

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?

No 78.2¢

4,855.6 株

78.2¢

92.5¢

$4,491.44$696.11 (18.34%)

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?

No 78.2¢

4,855.6 株

$4,491.44$696.11 (18.34%)

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

No 75.4¢

5,424.7 株

75.4¢

76.5¢

$4,149.86$57.66 (1.41%)

Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

No 75.4¢

5,424.7 株

$4,149.86$57.66 (1.41%)

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Yes 26.4¢

14,088.5 株

26.4¢

24.5¢

$3,451.69-$271.26 (-7.29%)

Will Trump and Putin not meet?

Yes 26.4¢

14,088.5 株

$3,451.69-$271.26 (-7.29%)

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Yes 91.8¢

3,571.4 株

91.8¢

96.5¢

$3,446.40$168.54 (5.14%)

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Yes 91.8¢

3,571.4 株

$3,446.40$168.54 (5.14%)

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

No 62.7¢

3,713.7 株

62.7¢

86.5¢

$3,212.37$881.97 (37.85%)

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

No 62.7¢

3,713.7 株

$3,212.37$881.97 (37.85%)

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

No 64.5¢

2,739.9 株

64.5¢

97.5¢

$2,671.37$902.81 (51.05%)

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

No 64.5¢

2,739.9 株

$2,671.37$902.81 (51.05%)

Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Yes 95.3¢

2,679.3 株

95.3¢

98.4¢

$2,635.09$81.04 (3.17%)

Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Yes 95.3¢

2,679.3 株

$2,635.09$81.04 (3.17%)

Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

Yes 11.6¢

13,555.4 株

11.6¢

17.5¢

$2,372.19$805.24 (51.39%)

Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

Yes 11.6¢

13,555.4 株

$2,372.19$805.24 (51.39%)

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Yes 20.1¢

18,301.8 株

20.1¢

11.5¢

$2,104.71-$1,565.59 (-42.66%)

Iran leadership change by December 31?

Yes 20.1¢

18,301.8 株

$2,104.71-$1,565.59 (-42.66%)

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?

No 95.2¢

2,046.3 株

95.2¢

96.3¢

$1,970.63$22.30 (1.14%)

Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?

No 95.2¢

2,046.3 株

$1,970.63$22.30 (1.14%)