Despite recent reports of Pentagon contingency planning for potential military operations in Cuba and Cuban President Díaz-Canel's warnings of a possible U.S. strike—amid heightened rhetoric from President Trump signaling regime change options—traders price a 76.5% implied probability on no invasion occurring in 2026. This consensus stems from the absence of any direct provocation or casus belli, U.S. military commitments elsewhere like the Iran conflict, and preference for sanctions and executive actions, as outlined in the January White House memorandum addressing Cuban threats to U.S. security. Ongoing bilateral talks, including Cuba's March economic cooperation roadmap, further temper escalation risks, with historical precedents like the failed Bay of Pigs underscoring high barriers to full-scale invasion absent broader geopolitical shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$1,439,678 Vol.
$1,439,678 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$1,439,678 Vol.
$1,439,678 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Despite recent reports of Pentagon contingency planning for potential military operations in Cuba and Cuban President Díaz-Canel's warnings of a possible U.S. strike—amid heightened rhetoric from President Trump signaling regime change options—traders price a 76.5% implied probability on no invasion occurring in 2026. This consensus stems from the absence of any direct provocation or casus belli, U.S. military commitments elsewhere like the Iran conflict, and preference for sanctions and executive actions, as outlined in the January White House memorandum addressing Cuban threats to U.S. security. Ongoing bilateral talks, including Cuba's March economic cooperation roadmap, further temper escalation risks, with historical precedents like the failed Bay of Pigs underscoring high barriers to full-scale invasion absent broader geopolitical shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Mercato aperto: Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Volume
$1,439,678Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Despite recent reports of Pentagon contingency planning for potential military operations in Cuba and Cuban President Díaz-Canel's warnings of a possible U.S. strike—amid heightened rhetoric from President Trump signaling regime change options—traders price a 76.5% implied probability on no invasion occurring in 2026. This consensus stems from the absence of any direct provocation or casus belli, U.S. military commitments elsewhere like the Iran conflict, and preference for sanctions and executive actions, as outlined in the January White House memorandum addressing Cuban threats to U.S. security. Ongoing bilateral talks, including Cuba's March economic cooperation roadmap, further temper escalation risks, with historical precedents like the failed Bay of Pigs underscoring high barriers to full-scale invasion absent broader geopolitical shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$1,439,678Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite recent reports of Pentagon contingency planning for potential military operations in Cuba and Cuban President Díaz-Canel's warnings of a possible U.S. strike—amid heightened rhetoric from President Trump signaling regime change options—traders price a 76.5% implied probability on no invasion occurring in 2026. This consensus stems from the absence of any direct provocation or casus belli, U.S. military commitments elsewhere like the Iran conflict, and preference for sanctions and executive actions, as outlined in the January White House memorandum addressing Cuban threats to U.S. security. Ongoing bilateral talks, including Cuba's March economic cooperation roadmap, further temper escalation risks, with historical precedents like the failed Bay of Pigs underscoring high barriers to full-scale invasion absent broader geopolitical shifts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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