Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.1% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% for the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that has solidified the Fed's pause in monetary policy. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4%—amid surging energy prices up 12.5%, while the March nonfarm payrolls report exceeded expectations with robust job gains and unemployment steady near 4.3%-4.4%. The prior March 18 FOMC statement and projections reinforced this stance, revising 2026 inflation higher while penciling in just one potential rate cut later. Challenging this near-certainty would require abrupt downside surprises in upcoming data like April retail sales or manufacturing surveys, though current momentum favors continuity.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDecisione della Fed ad aprile?
Decisione della Fed ad aprile?
Nessun cambiamento 99.0%
Riduzione di 25 punti base <1%
Aumento di oltre 25 punti base <1%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base <1%
$97,234,566 Vol.
$97,234,566 Vol.
29 apr 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
<1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
<1%
Nessun cambiamento
99%
Aumento di oltre 25 punti base
<1%
Nessun cambiamento 99.0%
Riduzione di 25 punti base <1%
Aumento di oltre 25 punti base <1%
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base <1%
$97,234,566 Vol.
$97,234,566 Vol.
29 apr 2026
Riduzione di oltre 50 punti base
$35,376,569 Vol.
<1%
Riduzione di 25 punti base
$19,834,256 Vol.
<1%
Nessun cambiamento
$19,739,661 Vol.
99%
Aumento di oltre 25 punti base
$22,286,317 Vol.
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.1% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% for the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that has solidified the Fed's pause in monetary policy. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4%—amid surging energy prices up 12.5%, while the March nonfarm payrolls report exceeded expectations with robust job gains and unemployment steady near 4.3%-4.4%. The prior March 18 FOMC statement and projections reinforced this stance, revising 2026 inflation higher while penciling in just one potential rate cut later. Challenging this near-certainty would require abrupt downside surprises in upcoming data like April retail sales or manufacturing surveys, though current momentum favors continuity.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$97,234,566Data di fine
29 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.1% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% for the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that has solidified the Fed's pause in monetary policy. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4%—amid surging energy prices up 12.5%, while the March nonfarm payrolls report exceeded expectations with robust job gains and unemployment steady near 4.3%-4.4%. The prior March 18 FOMC statement and projections reinforced this stance, revising 2026 inflation higher while penciling in just one potential rate cut later. Challenging this near-certainty would require abrupt downside surprises in upcoming data like April retail sales or manufacturing surveys, though current momentum favors continuity.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$97,234,566Data di fine
29 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.1% implied probability of no change in the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% for the April 28-29, 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient U.S. economic data that has solidified the Fed's pause in monetary policy. March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4%—amid surging energy prices up 12.5%, while the March nonfarm payrolls report exceeded expectations with robust job gains and unemployment steady near 4.3%-4.4%. The prior March 18 FOMC statement and projections reinforced this stance, revising 2026 inflation higher while penciling in just one potential rate cut later. Challenging this near-certainty would require abrupt downside surprises in upcoming data like April retail sales or manufacturing surveys, though current momentum favors continuity.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
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