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Politica·Politica Estera

La Cina invaderà Taiwan entro la fine del 2026?

Market icon
Politica·Politica Estera

La Cina invaderà Taiwan entro la fine del 2026?

giu 30

set 30

dic 31

giu 30, 2027

giu 30

set 30

dic 31

giu 30, 2027

Sì

9% probabilità
Polymarket

$19,597,654 Vol.

Sì

9% probabilità
Polymarket

$19,597,654 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments released in mid-March 2026 concluded China is not planning a Taiwan invasion by 2027, preferring unification through non-military coercion amid ongoing PLA leadership purges that may delay capabilities. This trader consensus, reflected in the 91.3% "No" probability, aligns with recent cross-strait diplomacy, including President Xi Jinping's April 10 meeting with Taiwan's opposition KMT leader Cheng Li-wun—the first in a decade—emphasizing peaceful reunification and "one family" rhetoric. Routine Chinese military drills in the Taiwan Strait and East China Sea persist without escalation signals, while declining incursions and Taiwan's defense enhancements underscore deterrence. Late-breaking geopolitical shifts, such as US distractions or Taiwan policy changes, could still alter dynamics before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$19,597,654
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET

Risolutore

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments released in mid-March 2026 concluded China is not planning a Taiwan invasion by 2027, preferring unification through non-military coercion amid ongoing PLA leadership purges that may delay capabilities. This trader consensus, reflected in the 91.3% "No" probability, aligns with recent cross-strait diplomacy, including President Xi Jinping's April 10 meeting with Taiwan's opposition KMT leader Cheng Li-wun—the first in a decade—emphasizing peaceful reunification and "one family" rhetoric. Routine Chinese military drills in the Taiwan Strait and East China Sea persist without escalation signals, while declining incursions and Taiwan's defense enhancements underscore deterrence. Late-breaking geopolitical shifts, such as US distractions or Taiwan policy changes, could still alter dynamics before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$19,597,654
Data di fine
31 dic 2026
Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET

Risolutore

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Domande frequenti

"La Cina invaderà Taiwan entro la fine del 2026?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 2 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "La Cina invaderà Taiwan entro la fine del 2026?" a 9%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 9¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 9% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "La Cina invaderà Taiwan entro la fine del 2026?" ha generato $19.6 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Jul 24, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "La Cina invaderà Taiwan entro la fine del 2026?", esplora i 2 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

Questo è un mercato molto aperto. L'attuale leader per "La Cina invaderà Taiwan entro la fine del 2026?" è "La Cina invaderà Taiwan entro la fine del 2026?" a solo 9%. Con nessun esito che detiene una forte maggioranza, i trader vedono questo come altamente incerto, il che può presentare opportunità di trading uniche. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale, quindi aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per vedere come si evolvono le probabilità.

Le regole di risoluzione per "La Cina invaderà Taiwan entro la fine del 2026?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.