Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027, driven by a March 2026 U.S. intelligence assessment from the ODNI stating Beijing likely lacks invasion plans for that timeframe and prefers unification without force. Recent PLA military drills around Taiwan, labeled "reasonable" by China on April 17 amid Middle East distractions, remain routine coercive efforts rather than escalatory signals. Diplomatic gestures, including resumed direct flights and trade ties following a Taiwanese opposition leader's visit, underscore restraint despite U.S. arms sales and Japanese warship transits through the Taiwan Strait. High invasion costs, including potential U.S.-Japan intervention, bolster the no-clash positioning, though late-breaking diplomacy or global conflicts could shift odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$1,657,613 Vol.
$1,657,613 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$1,657,613 Vol.
$1,657,613 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027, driven by a March 2026 U.S. intelligence assessment from the ODNI stating Beijing likely lacks invasion plans for that timeframe and prefers unification without force. Recent PLA military drills around Taiwan, labeled "reasonable" by China on April 17 amid Middle East distractions, remain routine coercive efforts rather than escalatory signals. Diplomatic gestures, including resumed direct flights and trade ties following a Taiwanese opposition leader's visit, underscore restraint despite U.S. arms sales and Japanese warship transits through the Taiwan Strait. High invasion costs, including potential U.S.-Japan intervention, bolster the no-clash positioning, though late-breaking diplomacy or global conflicts could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$1,657,613Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027, driven by a March 2026 U.S. intelligence assessment from the ODNI stating Beijing likely lacks invasion plans for that timeframe and prefers unification without force. Recent PLA military drills around Taiwan, labeled "reasonable" by China on April 17 amid Middle East distractions, remain routine coercive efforts rather than escalatory signals. Diplomatic gestures, including resumed direct flights and trade ties following a Taiwanese opposition leader's visit, underscore restraint despite U.S. arms sales and Japanese warship transits through the Taiwan Strait. High invasion costs, including potential U.S.-Japan intervention, bolster the no-clash positioning, though late-breaking diplomacy or global conflicts could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,657,613Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 88.5% implied probability of no military clash between China and Taiwan before 2027, driven by a March 2026 U.S. intelligence assessment from the ODNI stating Beijing likely lacks invasion plans for that timeframe and prefers unification without force. Recent PLA military drills around Taiwan, labeled "reasonable" by China on April 17 amid Middle East distractions, remain routine coercive efforts rather than escalatory signals. Diplomatic gestures, including resumed direct flights and trade ties following a Taiwanese opposition leader's visit, underscore restraint despite U.S. arms sales and Japanese warship transits through the Taiwan Strait. High invasion costs, including potential U.S.-Japan intervention, bolster the no-clash positioning, though late-breaking diplomacy or global conflicts could shift odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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