US intelligence assessments, particularly the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, underpin the 87.5% trader-implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 2027. The report concludes that Beijing lacks current plans or a fixed unification timeline for 2027, favoring sustained coercive gray-zone measures such as military exercises, air and naval incursions, and economic pressure over kinetic action. Routine cross-strait activities through mid-2026 show no large-scale amphibious mobilization or force posture shifts signaling imminent operations. Logistical risks, potential US and allied intervention, and domestic priorities further elevate the costs of invasion, aligning with the wisdom-of-crowds pricing that assigns only a modest chance to escalation within the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa Cina invaderà Taiwan entro il 30 giugno 2027?
La Cina invaderà Taiwan entro il 30 giugno 2027?
Sì
$227,270 Vol.
$227,270 Vol.
30 giu 2027
Sì
$227,270 Vol.
$227,270 Vol.
30 giu 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, particularly the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, underpin the 87.5% trader-implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 2027. The report concludes that Beijing lacks current plans or a fixed unification timeline for 2027, favoring sustained coercive gray-zone measures such as military exercises, air and naval incursions, and economic pressure over kinetic action. Routine cross-strait activities through mid-2026 show no large-scale amphibious mobilization or force posture shifts signaling imminent operations. Logistical risks, potential US and allied intervention, and domestic priorities further elevate the costs of invasion, aligning with the wisdom-of-crowds pricing that assigns only a modest chance to escalation within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
Volume
$227,270Data di fine
30 giu 2027Mercato aperto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments, particularly the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, underpin the 87.5% trader-implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 2027. The report concludes that Beijing lacks current plans or a fixed unification timeline for 2027, favoring sustained coercive gray-zone measures such as military exercises, air and naval incursions, and economic pressure over kinetic action. Routine cross-strait activities through mid-2026 show no large-scale amphibious mobilization or force posture shifts signaling imminent operations. Logistical risks, potential US and allied intervention, and domestic priorities further elevate the costs of invasion, aligning with the wisdom-of-crowds pricing that assigns only a modest chance to escalation within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$227,270Data di fine
30 giu 2027Mercato aperto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments, particularly the March 2026 ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, underpin the 87.5% trader-implied probability against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by June 2027. The report concludes that Beijing lacks current plans or a fixed unification timeline for 2027, favoring sustained coercive gray-zone measures such as military exercises, air and naval incursions, and economic pressure over kinetic action. Routine cross-strait activities through mid-2026 show no large-scale amphibious mobilization or force posture shifts signaling imminent operations. Logistical risks, potential US and allied intervention, and domestic priorities further elevate the costs of invasion, aligning with the wisdom-of-crowds pricing that assigns only a modest chance to escalation within the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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