Iran's nuclear infrastructure sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites and related facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin largely inaccessible or inoperable, with stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium buried under rubble and beyond IAEA verification since mid-2025. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on down-blending and inspections collapsed within weeks, leaving monitoring suspended and no confirmed resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities. Satellite imagery from mid-September 2026 shows Iran hardening and rebuilding damaged sites such as Taleghan 2 at Parchin with added blast protection, yet these steps align with defensive consolidation rather than rapid advancement toward a test. Trader consensus at 95% for no test before 2027 reflects sustained military deterrence, sanctions pressure, and technical barriers from degraded capabilities. Late shifts could still arise from undetected parallel efforts, a sudden policy reversal by Tehran, or major escalation that alters the current deterrence balance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
5% probabilità
$262,788 Vol.
$262,788 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
5% probabilità
$262,788 Vol.
$262,788 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran's nuclear infrastructure sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites and related facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin largely inaccessible or inoperable, with stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium buried under rubble and beyond IAEA verification since mid-2025. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on down-blending and inspections collapsed within weeks, leaving monitoring suspended and no confirmed resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities. Satellite imagery from mid-September 2026 shows Iran hardening and rebuilding damaged sites such as Taleghan 2 at Parchin with added blast protection, yet these steps align with defensive consolidation rather than rapid advancement toward a test. Trader consensus at 95% for no test before 2027 reflects sustained military deterrence, sanctions pressure, and technical barriers from degraded capabilities. Late shifts could still arise from undetected parallel efforts, a sudden policy reversal by Tehran, or major escalation that alters the current deterrence balance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$262,788Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran's nuclear infrastructure sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites and related facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin largely inaccessible or inoperable, with stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium buried under rubble and beyond IAEA verification since mid-2025. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on down-blending and inspections collapsed within weeks, leaving monitoring suspended and no confirmed resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities. Satellite imagery from mid-September 2026 shows Iran hardening and rebuilding damaged sites such as Taleghan 2 at Parchin with added blast protection, yet these steps align with defensive consolidation rather than rapid advancement toward a test. Trader consensus at 95% for no test before 2027 reflects sustained military deterrence, sanctions pressure, and technical barriers from degraded capabilities. Late shifts could still arise from undetected parallel efforts, a sudden policy reversal by Tehran, or major escalation that alters the current deterrence balance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$262,788Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Iran's nuclear infrastructure sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites and related facilities at Natanz, Fordow, Isfahan, and Parchin largely inaccessible or inoperable, with stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium buried under rubble and beyond IAEA verification since mid-2025. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on down-blending and inspections collapsed within weeks, leaving monitoring suspended and no confirmed resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities. Satellite imagery from mid-September 2026 shows Iran hardening and rebuilding damaged sites such as Taleghan 2 at Parchin with added blast protection, yet these steps align with defensive consolidation rather than rapid advancement toward a test. Trader consensus at 95% for no test before 2027 reflects sustained military deterrence, sanctions pressure, and technical barriers from degraded capabilities. Late shifts could still arise from undetected parallel efforts, a sudden policy reversal by Tehran, or major escalation that alters the current deterrence balance.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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