US and Israeli airstrikes in February and March 2026, including operations targeting Natanz, Isfahan, and bunkered facilities like Taleghan 2, have severely degraded Iran's nuclear infrastructure, destroying enrichment plants and delaying weaponization efforts by years, per IAEA assessments and satellite imagery. The IAEA's February 2026 report verified Iran's stockpile of over 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but noted no radiation spikes, limited inspector access post-strikes, and no signs of active weaponization or testing activity. Tehran's fatwa prohibiting nuclear arms, combined with diplomatic pressures amid stalled US-Iran talks, reinforces trader consensus against a test before 2027, though rapid rebuilding or doctrinal reversal could shift odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?
Test nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?
Sì
$169,103 Vol.
$169,103 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$169,103 Vol.
$169,103 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes in February and March 2026, including operations targeting Natanz, Isfahan, and bunkered facilities like Taleghan 2, have severely degraded Iran's nuclear infrastructure, destroying enrichment plants and delaying weaponization efforts by years, per IAEA assessments and satellite imagery. The IAEA's February 2026 report verified Iran's stockpile of over 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but noted no radiation spikes, limited inspector access post-strikes, and no signs of active weaponization or testing activity. Tehran's fatwa prohibiting nuclear arms, combined with diplomatic pressures amid stalled US-Iran talks, reinforces trader consensus against a test before 2027, though rapid rebuilding or doctrinal reversal could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$169,103Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes in February and March 2026, including operations targeting Natanz, Isfahan, and bunkered facilities like Taleghan 2, have severely degraded Iran's nuclear infrastructure, destroying enrichment plants and delaying weaponization efforts by years, per IAEA assessments and satellite imagery. The IAEA's February 2026 report verified Iran's stockpile of over 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but noted no radiation spikes, limited inspector access post-strikes, and no signs of active weaponization or testing activity. Tehran's fatwa prohibiting nuclear arms, combined with diplomatic pressures amid stalled US-Iran talks, reinforces trader consensus against a test before 2027, though rapid rebuilding or doctrinal reversal could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$169,103Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes in February and March 2026, including operations targeting Natanz, Isfahan, and bunkered facilities like Taleghan 2, have severely degraded Iran's nuclear infrastructure, destroying enrichment plants and delaying weaponization efforts by years, per IAEA assessments and satellite imagery. The IAEA's February 2026 report verified Iran's stockpile of over 440 kg of 60% enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but noted no radiation spikes, limited inspector access post-strikes, and no signs of active weaponization or testing activity. Tehran's fatwa prohibiting nuclear arms, combined with diplomatic pressures amid stalled US-Iran talks, reinforces trader consensus against a test before 2027, though rapid rebuilding or doctrinal reversal could shift odds.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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