US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear program has sustained limited damage from ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes, leaving timelines for weapon acquisition unchanged at 9-12 months despite hits on facilities like the Taleghan 2 test site. IAEA reports through March confirm high-enriched uranium stockpiles but no verified weaponization or test preparations, amid restricted agency access post-2025 attacks. Tehran upholds Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa against nuclear arms, while war escalation and sanctions heighten risks of a detectable test. Trader consensus at 91.5% "No" reflects these structural barriers and lack of imminent signals, though diplomacy or covert advances could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?
Test nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?
Sì
$189,905 Vol.
$189,905 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$189,905 Vol.
$189,905 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear program has sustained limited damage from ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes, leaving timelines for weapon acquisition unchanged at 9-12 months despite hits on facilities like the Taleghan 2 test site. IAEA reports through March confirm high-enriched uranium stockpiles but no verified weaponization or test preparations, amid restricted agency access post-2025 attacks. Tehran upholds Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa against nuclear arms, while war escalation and sanctions heighten risks of a detectable test. Trader consensus at 91.5% "No" reflects these structural barriers and lack of imminent signals, though diplomacy or covert advances could shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$189,905Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear program has sustained limited damage from ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes, leaving timelines for weapon acquisition unchanged at 9-12 months despite hits on facilities like the Taleghan 2 test site. IAEA reports through March confirm high-enriched uranium stockpiles but no verified weaponization or test preparations, amid restricted agency access post-2025 attacks. Tehran upholds Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa against nuclear arms, while war escalation and sanctions heighten risks of a detectable test. Trader consensus at 91.5% "No" reflects these structural barriers and lack of imminent signals, though diplomacy or covert advances could shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$189,905Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate Iran's nuclear program has sustained limited damage from ongoing US-Israeli airstrikes, leaving timelines for weapon acquisition unchanged at 9-12 months despite hits on facilities like the Taleghan 2 test site. IAEA reports through March confirm high-enriched uranium stockpiles but no verified weaponization or test preparations, amid restricted agency access post-2025 attacks. Tehran upholds Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa against nuclear arms, while war escalation and sanctions heighten risks of a detectable test. Trader consensus at 91.5% "No" reflects these structural barriers and lack of imminent signals, though diplomacy or covert advances could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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