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icon for Test nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?

Test nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?

icon for Test nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?

Test nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?

5% probabilità
Polymarket

$262,022 Vol.

5% probabilità
Polymarket

$262,022 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes have left key Iranian nuclear facilities, including enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, heavily damaged with stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium entombed and inaccessible to IAEA inspectors for months. Satellite imagery from September 2026 shows reconstruction underway at Parchin’s Taleghan 2 and defensive work at Pickaxe Mountain, yet these efforts focus on hardening rather than immediate weapons testing. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum on down-blending expired without agreement, leaving enrichment activities suspended under international scrutiny. Traders assign a 95 percent implied probability to no test before 2027 because the program remains constrained by verified damage, denied access, and ongoing diplomatic pressure.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$262,022
Data di fine
1 gen 2027
Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET

Risolutore

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes have left key Iranian nuclear facilities, including enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, heavily damaged with stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium entombed and inaccessible to IAEA inspectors for months. Satellite imagery from September 2026 shows reconstruction underway at Parchin’s Taleghan 2 and defensive work at Pickaxe Mountain, yet these efforts focus on hardening rather than immediate weapons testing. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum on down-blending expired without agreement, leaving enrichment activities suspended under international scrutiny. Traders assign a 95 percent implied probability to no test before 2027 because the program remains constrained by verified damage, denied access, and ongoing diplomatic pressure.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$262,022
Data di fine
1 gen 2027
Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET

Risolutore

0x65070BE91...

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Domande frequenti

"Test nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 2 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Test nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?" a 5%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 5¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 5% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Test nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?" ha generato $262K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Nov 5, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Test nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?", esplora i 2 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

Questo è un mercato molto aperto. L'attuale leader per "Test nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?" è "Test nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?" a solo 5%. Con nessun esito che detiene una forte maggioranza, i trader vedono questo come altamente incerto, il che può presentare opportunità di trading uniche. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale, quindi aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per vedere come si evolvono le probabilità.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Test nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.