US-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and early 2026 targeted key Iranian enrichment and weaponization sites, including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, substantially degrading infrastructure and extending breakout timelines according to multiple intelligence assessments. These operations, combined with ongoing IAEA monitoring gaps and Iran's focus on concealment and rebuilding efforts at facilities like those near Isfahan, have pushed realistic estimates for any nuclear weapons capability to two years or longer. No verified nuclear test activity has occurred, and seismic events previously linked to speculation were confirmed as natural. Traders reflect this sustained degradation in the 92.5% implied probability against a test before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?
Test nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?
Sì
$196,569 Vol.
$196,569 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$196,569 Vol.
$196,569 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and early 2026 targeted key Iranian enrichment and weaponization sites, including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, substantially degrading infrastructure and extending breakout timelines according to multiple intelligence assessments. These operations, combined with ongoing IAEA monitoring gaps and Iran's focus on concealment and rebuilding efforts at facilities like those near Isfahan, have pushed realistic estimates for any nuclear weapons capability to two years or longer. No verified nuclear test activity has occurred, and seismic events previously linked to speculation were confirmed as natural. Traders reflect this sustained degradation in the 92.5% implied probability against a test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$196,569Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and early 2026 targeted key Iranian enrichment and weaponization sites, including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, substantially degrading infrastructure and extending breakout timelines according to multiple intelligence assessments. These operations, combined with ongoing IAEA monitoring gaps and Iran's focus on concealment and rebuilding efforts at facilities like those near Isfahan, have pushed realistic estimates for any nuclear weapons capability to two years or longer. No verified nuclear test activity has occurred, and seismic events previously linked to speculation were confirmed as natural. Traders reflect this sustained degradation in the 92.5% implied probability against a test before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$196,569Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and early 2026 targeted key Iranian enrichment and weaponization sites, including Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, substantially degrading infrastructure and extending breakout timelines according to multiple intelligence assessments. These operations, combined with ongoing IAEA monitoring gaps and Iran's focus on concealment and rebuilding efforts at facilities like those near Isfahan, have pushed realistic estimates for any nuclear weapons capability to two years or longer. No verified nuclear test activity has occurred, and seismic events previously linked to speculation were confirmed as natural. Traders reflect this sustained degradation in the 92.5% implied probability against a test before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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