Traders assign a 96.3% probability that Iran will not conduct a nuclear test before 2027, reflecting broad consensus on the absence of verified weaponization milestones or breakout signals in recent IAEA monitoring and diplomatic reporting. Key factors include sustained international sanctions, ongoing negotiations with major powers, and Iran's current uranium enrichment levels remaining below thresholds typically associated with immediate weapon testing. Historical patterns of incremental advances without full tests, combined with domestic economic pressures and regional security calculations, further support this view. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include a rapid escalation in tensions with Israel or the United States, a verified decision by Iranian leadership to pursue overt weaponization, or major changes in sanctions enforcement that alter strategic incentives within the next 14 months.