Recent military strikes have left key Iranian nuclear facilities, including enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, heavily damaged with stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium entombed and inaccessible to IAEA inspectors for months. Satellite imagery from September 2026 shows reconstruction underway at Parchin’s Taleghan 2 and defensive work at Pickaxe Mountain, yet these efforts focus on hardening rather than immediate weapons testing. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum on down-blending expired without agreement, leaving enrichment activities suspended under international scrutiny. Traders assign a 95 percent implied probability to no test before 2027 because the program remains constrained by verified damage, denied access, and ongoing diplomatic pressure.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
5% probabilità
$262,022 Vol.
$262,022 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
5% probabilità
$262,022 Vol.
$262,022 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes have left key Iranian nuclear facilities, including enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, heavily damaged with stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium entombed and inaccessible to IAEA inspectors for months. Satellite imagery from September 2026 shows reconstruction underway at Parchin’s Taleghan 2 and defensive work at Pickaxe Mountain, yet these efforts focus on hardening rather than immediate weapons testing. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum on down-blending expired without agreement, leaving enrichment activities suspended under international scrutiny. Traders assign a 95 percent implied probability to no test before 2027 because the program remains constrained by verified damage, denied access, and ongoing diplomatic pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$262,022Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent military strikes have left key Iranian nuclear facilities, including enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, heavily damaged with stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium entombed and inaccessible to IAEA inspectors for months. Satellite imagery from September 2026 shows reconstruction underway at Parchin’s Taleghan 2 and defensive work at Pickaxe Mountain, yet these efforts focus on hardening rather than immediate weapons testing. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum on down-blending expired without agreement, leaving enrichment activities suspended under international scrutiny. Traders assign a 95 percent implied probability to no test before 2027 because the program remains constrained by verified damage, denied access, and ongoing diplomatic pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$262,022Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Recent military strikes have left key Iranian nuclear facilities, including enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, heavily damaged with stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium entombed and inaccessible to IAEA inspectors for months. Satellite imagery from September 2026 shows reconstruction underway at Parchin’s Taleghan 2 and defensive work at Pickaxe Mountain, yet these efforts focus on hardening rather than immediate weapons testing. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum on down-blending expired without agreement, leaving enrichment activities suspended under international scrutiny. Traders assign a 95 percent implied probability to no test before 2027 because the program remains constrained by verified damage, denied access, and ongoing diplomatic pressure.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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