US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate limited additional damage to Iran's nuclear facilities from recent airstrikes amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, leaving Tehran's weaponization timeline unchanged at 9-12 months for a basic bomb and longer for a testable device. IAEA reports confirm Iran lacks a viable nuclear weapon design or detonation system, despite high-level uranium enrichment, reinforcing trader consensus at 91.5% against a test before 2027. Ongoing sanctions, repeated sabotage, and Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa prohibiting nuclear arms further deter escalation, though rapid diplomatic breakthroughs or covert advances could shift odds. No verified test preparations have emerged in the past month.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoTest nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?
Test nucleare iraniano prima del 2027?
Sì
$189,905 Vol.
$189,905 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$189,905 Vol.
$189,905 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate limited additional damage to Iran's nuclear facilities from recent airstrikes amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, leaving Tehran's weaponization timeline unchanged at 9-12 months for a basic bomb and longer for a testable device. IAEA reports confirm Iran lacks a viable nuclear weapon design or detonation system, despite high-level uranium enrichment, reinforcing trader consensus at 91.5% against a test before 2027. Ongoing sanctions, repeated sabotage, and Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa prohibiting nuclear arms further deter escalation, though rapid diplomatic breakthroughs or covert advances could shift odds. No verified test preparations have emerged in the past month.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$189,905Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate limited additional damage to Iran's nuclear facilities from recent airstrikes amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, leaving Tehran's weaponization timeline unchanged at 9-12 months for a basic bomb and longer for a testable device. IAEA reports confirm Iran lacks a viable nuclear weapon design or detonation system, despite high-level uranium enrichment, reinforcing trader consensus at 91.5% against a test before 2027. Ongoing sanctions, repeated sabotage, and Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa prohibiting nuclear arms further deter escalation, though rapid diplomatic breakthroughs or covert advances could shift odds. No verified test preparations have emerged in the past month.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$189,905Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate limited additional damage to Iran's nuclear facilities from recent airstrikes amid the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict, leaving Tehran's weaponization timeline unchanged at 9-12 months for a basic bomb and longer for a testable device. IAEA reports confirm Iran lacks a viable nuclear weapon design or detonation system, despite high-level uranium enrichment, reinforcing trader consensus at 91.5% against a test before 2027. Ongoing sanctions, repeated sabotage, and Supreme Leader Khamenei's fatwa prohibiting nuclear arms further deter escalation, though rapid diplomatic breakthroughs or covert advances could shift odds. No verified test preparations have emerged in the past month.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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