Iran’s nuclear facilities sustained extensive damage from Israeli and U.S. strikes in 2025 and early 2026, destroying or burying much of the enrichment infrastructure at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan while rendering stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium largely inaccessible. IAEA reports confirm restricted inspector access and an inability to verify current stockpile locations or enrichment activities, with the program described as dormant amid backfilled tunnels and halted centrifuge operations. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on down-blending collapsed by July, leaving reconstruction efforts at sites such as Pickaxe Mountain and Parchin under satellite scrutiny but without evidence of resumed weaponization. These constraints, combined with ongoing international monitoring and sanctions pressure, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 remains improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
5% probabilità
$262,022 Vol.
$262,022 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
5% probabilità
$262,022 Vol.
$262,022 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear facilities sustained extensive damage from Israeli and U.S. strikes in 2025 and early 2026, destroying or burying much of the enrichment infrastructure at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan while rendering stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium largely inaccessible. IAEA reports confirm restricted inspector access and an inability to verify current stockpile locations or enrichment activities, with the program described as dormant amid backfilled tunnels and halted centrifuge operations. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on down-blending collapsed by July, leaving reconstruction efforts at sites such as Pickaxe Mountain and Parchin under satellite scrutiny but without evidence of resumed weaponization. These constraints, combined with ongoing international monitoring and sanctions pressure, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 remains improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$262,022Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear facilities sustained extensive damage from Israeli and U.S. strikes in 2025 and early 2026, destroying or burying much of the enrichment infrastructure at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan while rendering stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium largely inaccessible. IAEA reports confirm restricted inspector access and an inability to verify current stockpile locations or enrichment activities, with the program described as dormant amid backfilled tunnels and halted centrifuge operations. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on down-blending collapsed by July, leaving reconstruction efforts at sites such as Pickaxe Mountain and Parchin under satellite scrutiny but without evidence of resumed weaponization. These constraints, combined with ongoing international monitoring and sanctions pressure, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 remains improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$262,022Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Iran’s nuclear facilities sustained extensive damage from Israeli and U.S. strikes in 2025 and early 2026, destroying or burying much of the enrichment infrastructure at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan while rendering stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium largely inaccessible. IAEA reports confirm restricted inspector access and an inability to verify current stockpile locations or enrichment activities, with the program described as dormant amid backfilled tunnels and halted centrifuge operations. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding on down-blending collapsed by July, leaving reconstruction efforts at sites such as Pickaxe Mountain and Parchin under satellite scrutiny but without evidence of resumed weaponization. These constraints, combined with ongoing international monitoring and sanctions pressure, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test before 2027 remains improbable.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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