Iran’s nuclear infrastructure suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving major enrichment plants at Natanz, Fordow, and related sites largely inoperable and most centrifuges destroyed. The IAEA has had no access since June 2025, leaving the status of remaining 60%-enriched uranium stockpiles unverified amid tunnel reconstruction and limited renewed activity at sites such as Minzadehei observed in recent satellite imagery. Iranian officials continue to affirm enrichment rights while denying weapons intent, with ongoing but stalled diplomatic talks emphasizing capacity reductions. Trader consensus on no test before 2027 reflects these structural barriers and external pressures, though rapid secret reconstitution of enrichment or a policy shift toward testing remain low-probability scenarios that could alter outcomes before year-end.