**Trader consensus at 95% for No reflects the extremely short timeline remaining before December 31, 2026, combined with high technical and political barriers to any US ally achieving independent operational control of nuclear weapons.** NATO members and Major Non-NATO Allies continue to rely on US extended deterrence commitments, reinforced through trilateral diplomacy with Japan and South Korea and ongoing alliance coordination. Recent US civilian nuclear cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia and approvals related to South Korean naval reactors advance potential nuclear latency through enrichment pathways, yet these steps remain far from weapons-grade material production, testing, or declared arsenals under sovereign control. No ally has conducted the required fissile material work, delivery system integration, or official confirmation needed for market resolution within the window, and historical precedents show such transitions typically require years rather than months.