Trump administration pressure on NATO allies over defense spending and support for U.S. operations against Iran has prompted troop posture reviews, planned reductions in Europe, and selective exclusion from planning groups, yet formal withdrawal remains constrained by the 2023 congressional statute requiring Senate supermajority approval or separate legislation. Recent Pentagon announcements of a six-month force review and shifts toward European-led commands reflect efforts to reduce conventional commitments without triggering Article 13 notice procedures. Bipartisan legislative proposals to reinforce oversight and historical precedent of alliance continuity continue to anchor trader consensus at low implied probabilities for full U.S. exit by year-end.