Heightened US-Mexico border tensions and anti-cartel efforts shape trader views on the low probability of a qualifying US drone, missile, or air strike on Mexican territory by year-end. Recent alleged cross-border gunfire near the Rio Grande prompted joint “Operation Mirror” deployments of hundreds of troops and equipment from both nations, while Mexico’s military, with US intelligence support, killed CJNG leader “El Mencho.” President Sheinbaum has repeatedly rejected unilateral intervention and requested evidence of the shooting incident. The Trump administration continues maritime strikes on suspected drug vessels and has advanced planning for potential ground or drone operations inside Mexico, yet no such strikes on Mexican soil have occurred. Ongoing cartel drone activity and bilateral security talks remain key variables that could influence near-term developments.