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Politica·Primarie

VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Market icon
Politica·Primarie

VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner

Elaine Luria 84%

James Osyf 7.5%

Matt Strickler 4.0%

Burk Stringfellow 3.9%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Elaine Luria 84%

James Osyf 7.5%

Matt Strickler 4.0%

Burk Stringfellow 3.9%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Elaine Luria

$1,213 Vol.

84%

James Osyf

$1,097 Vol.

8%

Matt Strickler

$0 Vol.

4%

Burk Stringfellow

$0 Vol.

4%

Patrick Mosolf

$1,509 Vol.

2%

Nila Devanath

$794 Vol.

1%

Nicolaus Sleister

$0 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria leads Polymarket trader consensus at 83.5% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, driven by her incumbency experience from 2019-2023, dominant fundraising with over $1.7 million raised and $2.3 million cash on hand per recent FEC filings, and early inclusion in the DCCC's Red to Blue program on February 23. These factors position her far ahead of challengers like James Osyf (7.3%, second in fundraising at $410,000) and Matt Strickler (4.0%, ex-state official), who lag in resources and name recognition amid a crowded field of seven candidates. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, with traders betting on Luria's path to nomination in this battleground district rematch against incumbent Jen Kiggans.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,613
Data di fine
16 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former U.S. Rep. Elaine Luria leads Polymarket trader consensus at 83.5% implied probability to win the VA-02 Democratic primary on August 4, driven by her incumbency experience from 2019-2023, dominant fundraising with over $1.7 million raised and $2.3 million cash on hand per recent FEC filings, and early inclusion in the DCCC's Red to Blue program on February 23. These factors position her far ahead of challengers like James Osyf (7.3%, second in fundraising at $410,000) and Matt Strickler (4.0%, ex-state official), who lag in resources and name recognition amid a crowded field of seven candidates. No major developments in the past 30 days have shifted dynamics, with traders betting on Luria's path to nomination in this battleground district rematch against incumbent Jen Kiggans.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$4,613
Data di fine
16 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
Nov 25, 2025, 4:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 16, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Domande frequenti

"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 7 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Elaine Luria" a 84%, seguito da "James Osyf" a 8%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 84¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 84% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Nov 25, 2025. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner", esplora i 7 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" è "Elaine Luria" a 84%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 84% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "James Osyf" a 8%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "VA-02 Democratic Primary Winner" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.