South Dakota's at-large congressional district has remained under uninterrupted Republican control since 2011, with recent general election margins exceeding 25 points amid the state's rural demographics, agricultural economy, and consistent conservative voter preferences. The June 2026 Republican primary produced a decisive victory for nominee Marty Jackley following incumbent Dusty Johnson's decision to pursue the governorship, reinforcing party cohesion ahead of the November general election. Democratic nominee Nicole Gronli faces structural barriers including limited fundraising, low statewide party registration, and historical underperformance in at-large contests. Election forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns the Republican Party a commanding implied probability. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the nominee, or abrupt national political realignment could theoretically narrow the margin, though no such factors have materialized in the past 30 days.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSD-AL House Election Winner
SD-AL House Election Winner
$16,931 Vol.
$16,931 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
93%
Democratic Party
6%
$16,931 Vol.
$16,931 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Republican Party
$9,474 Vol.
93%
Democratic Party
$7,457 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's at-large congressional district has remained under uninterrupted Republican control since 2011, with recent general election margins exceeding 25 points amid the state's rural demographics, agricultural economy, and consistent conservative voter preferences. The June 2026 Republican primary produced a decisive victory for nominee Marty Jackley following incumbent Dusty Johnson's decision to pursue the governorship, reinforcing party cohesion ahead of the November general election. Democratic nominee Nicole Gronli faces structural barriers including limited fundraising, low statewide party registration, and historical underperformance in at-large contests. Election forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns the Republican Party a commanding implied probability. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the nominee, or abrupt national political realignment could theoretically narrow the margin, though no such factors have materialized in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$16,931Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).South Dakota's at-large congressional district has remained under uninterrupted Republican control since 2011, with recent general election margins exceeding 25 points amid the state's rural demographics, agricultural economy, and consistent conservative voter preferences. The June 2026 Republican primary produced a decisive victory for nominee Marty Jackley following incumbent Dusty Johnson's decision to pursue the governorship, reinforcing party cohesion ahead of the November general election. Democratic nominee Nicole Gronli faces structural barriers including limited fundraising, low statewide party registration, and historical underperformance in at-large contests. Election forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns the Republican Party a commanding implied probability. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the nominee, or abrupt national political realignment could theoretically narrow the margin, though no such factors have materialized in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$16,931Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...South Dakota's at-large congressional district has remained under uninterrupted Republican control since 2011, with recent general election margins exceeding 25 points amid the state's rural demographics, agricultural economy, and consistent conservative voter preferences. The June 2026 Republican primary produced a decisive victory for nominee Marty Jackley following incumbent Dusty Johnson's decision to pursue the governorship, reinforcing party cohesion ahead of the November general election. Democratic nominee Nicole Gronli faces structural barriers including limited fundraising, low statewide party registration, and historical underperformance in at-large contests. Election forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Republican, aligning with the current trader consensus that assigns the Republican Party a commanding implied probability. Late developments such as a major scandal, health event affecting the nominee, or abrupt national political realignment could theoretically narrow the margin, though no such factors have materialized in the past 30 days.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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