The Parti Québécois maintains an 87% implied probability as the likely winner of the October 5 Quebec general election because recent polling aggregates and seat models show it consistently leading popular vote intentions at 27-29% while projecting it to capture the most seats, often in minority territory. The CAQ trails at 22-24% amid voter fatigue with its governing record, new leadership under Christine Fréchette, and attacks over cost overruns and fiscal management during the ongoing campaign. The PLQ has shown modest rebound in some surveys but remains behind, while smaller parties including the PCQ and QS hold limited regional support that rarely translates to plurality outcomes. Recent leaders’ debates have reinforced scrutiny on the CAQ without shifting the frontrunner status reflected in trader consensus.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni generali del Quebec
Vincitore delle elezioni generali del Quebec
PQ 87%
CAQ 11%
PLQ 2.5%
PCQ <1%
$969,027 Vol.
$969,027 Vol.
4 ott 2026
PQ
87%
CAQ
11%
PLQ
3%
PCQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PVQ
<1%
PQ 87%
CAQ 11%
PLQ 2.5%
PCQ <1%
$969,027 Vol.
$969,027 Vol.
4 ott 2026
PQ
$157,940 Vol.
87%
CAQ
$147,579 Vol.
11%
PLQ
$144,007 Vol.
3%
PCQ
$255,456 Vol.
<1%
QS
$106,523 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$157,522 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois maintains an 87% implied probability as the likely winner of the October 5 Quebec general election because recent polling aggregates and seat models show it consistently leading popular vote intentions at 27-29% while projecting it to capture the most seats, often in minority territory. The CAQ trails at 22-24% amid voter fatigue with its governing record, new leadership under Christine Fréchette, and attacks over cost overruns and fiscal management during the ongoing campaign. The PLQ has shown modest rebound in some surveys but remains behind, while smaller parties including the PCQ and QS hold limited regional support that rarely translates to plurality outcomes. Recent leaders’ debates have reinforced scrutiny on the CAQ without shifting the frontrunner status reflected in trader consensus.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercato aperto: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$969,027Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois maintains an 87% implied probability as the likely winner of the October 5 Quebec general election because recent polling aggregates and seat models show it consistently leading popular vote intentions at 27-29% while projecting it to capture the most seats, often in minority territory. The CAQ trails at 22-24% amid voter fatigue with its governing record, new leadership under Christine Fréchette, and attacks over cost overruns and fiscal management during the ongoing campaign. The PLQ has shown modest rebound in some surveys but remains behind, while smaller parties including the PCQ and QS hold limited regional support that rarely translates to plurality outcomes. Recent leaders’ debates have reinforced scrutiny on the CAQ without shifting the frontrunner status reflected in trader consensus.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$969,027Data di fine
5 ott 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...The Parti Québécois maintains an 87% implied probability as the likely winner of the October 5 Quebec general election because recent polling aggregates and seat models show it consistently leading popular vote intentions at 27-29% while projecting it to capture the most seats, often in minority territory. The CAQ trails at 22-24% amid voter fatigue with its governing record, new leadership under Christine Fréchette, and attacks over cost overruns and fiscal management during the ongoing campaign. The PLQ has shown modest rebound in some surveys but remains behind, while smaller parties including the PCQ and QS hold limited regional support that rarely translates to plurality outcomes. Recent leaders’ debates have reinforced scrutiny on the CAQ without shifting the frontrunner status reflected in trader consensus.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti