**Trader consensus at 82.5% for "Yes" on the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market reflects the absence of any triggering events through mid-October.** The market resolves to "No" only if one of a narrow set of high-impact developments occurs by December 31, including Trump leaving the presidency, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, Xi Jinping's removal, U.S. military action against or regime change in Iran, Russia invading a NATO member, Bitcoin reaching $1 million or falling to $10,000, or a 9.0+ earthquake. Ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and Houthi-Saudi tensions have produced strikes and casualties but have not met these specific thresholds. No leadership shifts, extreme cryptocurrency moves, or qualifying natural disasters have taken place in the resolution window. With roughly 80 days remaining, the pricing embeds the view that these low-probability catalysts remain unlikely to materialize before year-end.