Trader consensus at 82% for "Yes" on the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market reflects the absence of any resolution-triggering events through mid-September, including no U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, China-Taiwan conflict escalation, Russian NATO incursion, or leadership changes involving President Trump or Xi Jinping. Ongoing but contained conflicts, such as Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian targets during parliamentary elections and diplomatic activity at the UN General Assembly amid Middle East and Ukraine tensions, have not produced the listed catalysts. Scheduled national elections in several countries and routine policy actions, including Federal Reserve decisions and bilateral security talks, have likewise stayed within bounds that leave the high implied probability of no major disruptions intact for the balance of the year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNon succede mai niente: 2026
Non succede mai niente: 2026
Sì
82% probabilità
$792,761 Vol.
$792,761 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
82% probabilità
$792,761 Vol.
$792,761 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus at 82% for "Yes" on the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market reflects the absence of any resolution-triggering events through mid-September, including no U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, China-Taiwan conflict escalation, Russian NATO incursion, or leadership changes involving President Trump or Xi Jinping. Ongoing but contained conflicts, such as Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian targets during parliamentary elections and diplomatic activity at the UN General Assembly amid Middle East and Ukraine tensions, have not produced the listed catalysts. Scheduled national elections in several countries and routine policy actions, including Federal Reserve decisions and bilateral security talks, have likewise stayed within bounds that leave the high implied probability of no major disruptions intact for the balance of the year.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Mercato aperto: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$792,761Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus at 82% for "Yes" on the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market reflects the absence of any resolution-triggering events through mid-September, including no U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, China-Taiwan conflict escalation, Russian NATO incursion, or leadership changes involving President Trump or Xi Jinping. Ongoing but contained conflicts, such as Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian targets during parliamentary elections and diplomatic activity at the UN General Assembly amid Middle East and Ukraine tensions, have not produced the listed catalysts. Scheduled national elections in several countries and routine policy actions, including Federal Reserve decisions and bilateral security talks, have likewise stayed within bounds that leave the high implied probability of no major disruptions intact for the balance of the year.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
Volume
$792,761Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus at 82% for "Yes" on the Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 market reflects the absence of any resolution-triggering events through mid-September, including no U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, China-Taiwan conflict escalation, Russian NATO incursion, or leadership changes involving President Trump or Xi Jinping. Ongoing but contained conflicts, such as Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian targets during parliamentary elections and diplomatic activity at the UN General Assembly amid Middle East and Ukraine tensions, have not produced the listed catalysts. Scheduled national elections in several countries and routine policy actions, including Federal Reserve decisions and bilateral security talks, have likewise stayed within bounds that leave the high implied probability of no major disruptions intact for the balance of the year.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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