Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 82.5% because the specific resolution triggers—such as a U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, China-Taiwan conflict, leadership changes for Trump or Xi, Republican Senate supermajority, or extreme Bitcoin moves—have not occurred and show no imminent signs of materializing before December 31. The February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and related leadership developments did not meet the defined criteria for resolution to "No," leaving the market focused on the absence of further escalation. Upcoming scheduled events, including mid-term legislative sessions and international summits, currently lack the momentum to shift these probabilities significantly. This positioning reflects the wisdom of crowds assigning low likelihood to additional high-impact disruptions in the remaining months.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNon succede mai niente: 2026
Non succede mai niente: 2026
Sì
$619,053 Vol.
$619,053 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$619,053 Vol.
$619,053 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices "Yes" at 82.5% because the specific resolution triggers—such as a U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, China-Taiwan conflict, leadership changes for Trump or Xi, Republican Senate supermajority, or extreme Bitcoin moves—have not occurred and show no imminent signs of materializing before December 31. The February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and related leadership developments did not meet the defined criteria for resolution to "No," leaving the market focused on the absence of further escalation. Upcoming scheduled events, including mid-term legislative sessions and international summits, currently lack the momentum to shift these probabilities significantly. This positioning reflects the wisdom of crowds assigning low likelihood to additional high-impact disruptions in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Mercato aperto: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Volume
$619,053Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices "Yes" at 82.5% because the specific resolution triggers—such as a U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, China-Taiwan conflict, leadership changes for Trump or Xi, Republican Senate supermajority, or extreme Bitcoin moves—have not occurred and show no imminent signs of materializing before December 31. The February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and related leadership developments did not meet the defined criteria for resolution to "No," leaving the market focused on the absence of further escalation. Upcoming scheduled events, including mid-term legislative sessions and international summits, currently lack the momentum to shift these probabilities significantly. This positioning reflects the wisdom of crowds assigning low likelihood to additional high-impact disruptions in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Volume
$619,053Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 82.5% because the specific resolution triggers—such as a U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, China-Taiwan conflict, leadership changes for Trump or Xi, Republican Senate supermajority, or extreme Bitcoin moves—have not occurred and show no imminent signs of materializing before December 31. The February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran and related leadership developments did not meet the defined criteria for resolution to "No," leaving the market focused on the absence of further escalation. Upcoming scheduled events, including mid-term legislative sessions and international summits, currently lack the momentum to shift these probabilities significantly. This positioning reflects the wisdom of crowds assigning low likelihood to additional high-impact disruptions in the remaining months.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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