Current mid-2026 atmospheric and seismic data from NOAA and USGS support the market-implied 74% probability for No on a major natural disaster occurring by year-end. ENSO-neutral conditions prevail with no strong steering patterns favoring intense hurricanes or clustered seismic events, while global temperatures and fault activity remain near historical baselines rather than elevated extremes. Developing El Niño forecasts introduce some uncertainty for later intensification, yet model consensus shows typical probabilities for category 3+ hurricanes or magnitude 7 earthquakes without the compounding factors that have driven past outliers. Traders appear to weigh these stable indicators heavily against rare high-impact thresholds, with upcoming NHC seasonal updates and USGS monitoring reports as key variables that could shift sentiment if new observations reveal atypical clustering or rapid intensification.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoDisastro naturale nel 2026?
Disastro naturale nel 2026?
Sì
$218,963 Vol.
$218,963 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$218,963 Vol.
$218,963 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Current mid-2026 atmospheric and seismic data from NOAA and USGS support the market-implied 74% probability for No on a major natural disaster occurring by year-end. ENSO-neutral conditions prevail with no strong steering patterns favoring intense hurricanes or clustered seismic events, while global temperatures and fault activity remain near historical baselines rather than elevated extremes. Developing El Niño forecasts introduce some uncertainty for later intensification, yet model consensus shows typical probabilities for category 3+ hurricanes or magnitude 7 earthquakes without the compounding factors that have driven past outliers. Traders appear to weigh these stable indicators heavily against rare high-impact thresholds, with upcoming NHC seasonal updates and USGS monitoring reports as key variables that could shift sentiment if new observations reveal atypical clustering or rapid intensification.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$218,963Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Current mid-2026 atmospheric and seismic data from NOAA and USGS support the market-implied 74% probability for No on a major natural disaster occurring by year-end. ENSO-neutral conditions prevail with no strong steering patterns favoring intense hurricanes or clustered seismic events, while global temperatures and fault activity remain near historical baselines rather than elevated extremes. Developing El Niño forecasts introduce some uncertainty for later intensification, yet model consensus shows typical probabilities for category 3+ hurricanes or magnitude 7 earthquakes without the compounding factors that have driven past outliers. Traders appear to weigh these stable indicators heavily against rare high-impact thresholds, with upcoming NHC seasonal updates and USGS monitoring reports as key variables that could shift sentiment if new observations reveal atypical clustering or rapid intensification.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$218,963Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current mid-2026 atmospheric and seismic data from NOAA and USGS support the market-implied 74% probability for No on a major natural disaster occurring by year-end. ENSO-neutral conditions prevail with no strong steering patterns favoring intense hurricanes or clustered seismic events, while global temperatures and fault activity remain near historical baselines rather than elevated extremes. Developing El Niño forecasts introduce some uncertainty for later intensification, yet model consensus shows typical probabilities for category 3+ hurricanes or magnitude 7 earthquakes without the compounding factors that have driven past outliers. Traders appear to weigh these stable indicators heavily against rare high-impact thresholds, with upcoming NHC seasonal updates and USGS monitoring reports as key variables that could shift sentiment if new observations reveal atypical clustering or rapid intensification.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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