Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus and NOAA confirm May 2026 global surface temperatures ranked among the second-warmest on record, with anomalies near 1.1–1.4°C above pre-industrial baselines amid persistent long-term warming and a developing El Niño event. This alignment with climate model ensembles and historical trends underpins the overwhelming market-implied odds for the 1.10–1.14°C bracket. ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning toward El Niño, combined with elevated sea surface temperatures, provide the key causal drivers. Minor revisions in final dataset processing or regional weighting could theoretically shift outcomes, though current evidence indicates limited scope for such adjustments before full verification.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 100.0%
<1.10ºC <1%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$201,757 Vol.
$201,757 Vol.
10 giu 2026
<1.10ºC
No
1.10–1.14ºC
Yes
1.15–1.19ºC
No
1.20–1.24ºC
No
1.25–1.29ºC
No
>1.29ºC
No
1.10–1.14ºC 100.0%
<1.10ºC <1%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$201,757 Vol.
$201,757 Vol.
10 giu 2026
<1.10ºC
$63,689 Vol.
No
1.10–1.14ºC
$26,675 Vol.
Yes
1.15–1.19ºC
$39,540 Vol.
No
1.20–1.24ºC
$24,028 Vol.
No
1.25–1.29ºC
$20,999 Vol.
No
>1.29ºC
$26,826 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus and NOAA confirm May 2026 global surface temperatures ranked among the second-warmest on record, with anomalies near 1.1–1.4°C above pre-industrial baselines amid persistent long-term warming and a developing El Niño event. This alignment with climate model ensembles and historical trends underpins the overwhelming market-implied odds for the 1.10–1.14°C bracket. ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning toward El Niño, combined with elevated sea surface temperatures, provide the key causal drivers. Minor revisions in final dataset processing or regional weighting could theoretically shift outcomes, though current evidence indicates limited scope for such adjustments before full verification.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$201,757Data di fine
10 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus and NOAA confirm May 2026 global surface temperatures ranked among the second-warmest on record, with anomalies near 1.1–1.4°C above pre-industrial baselines amid persistent long-term warming and a developing El Niño event. This alignment with climate model ensembles and historical trends underpins the overwhelming market-implied odds for the 1.10–1.14°C bracket. ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning toward El Niño, combined with elevated sea surface temperatures, provide the key causal drivers. Minor revisions in final dataset processing or regional weighting could theoretically shift outcomes, though current evidence indicates limited scope for such adjustments before full verification.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$201,757Data di fine
10 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Esito proposto: No
Nessuna contestazione
Esito finale: No
Recent observational data from agencies including Copernicus and NOAA confirm May 2026 global surface temperatures ranked among the second-warmest on record, with anomalies near 1.1–1.4°C above pre-industrial baselines amid persistent long-term warming and a developing El Niño event. This alignment with climate model ensembles and historical trends underpins the overwhelming market-implied odds for the 1.10–1.14°C bracket. ENSO-neutral conditions transitioning toward El Niño, combined with elevated sea surface temperatures, provide the key causal drivers. Minor revisions in final dataset processing or regional weighting could theoretically shift outcomes, though current evidence indicates limited scope for such adjustments before full verification.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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