Trader consensus places overwhelming 97% implied probability on a May 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.14°C, consistent with the established long-term warming trajectory from greenhouse gas forcing and recent neutral-to-weak ENSO conditions observed by NOAA. Official surface temperature records and climate model ensembles show this narrow band as the expected continuation of multi-year trends, with May anomalies typically aligning closely to annual averages absent major volcanic or oceanic disruptions. Key upcoming data releases from monitoring agencies will confirm final values, though short-term variability in atmospheric patterns could still nudge outcomes toward adjacent ranges if late adjustments occur.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 97.1%
<1.10ºC 1.5%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$192,166 Vol.
$192,166 Vol.
10 giu 2026
<1.10ºC
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC 97.1%
<1.10ºC 1.5%
1.15–1.19ºC <1%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
$192,166 Vol.
$192,166 Vol.
10 giu 2026
<1.10ºC
$61,006 Vol.
2%
1.10–1.14ºC
$24,247 Vol.
97%
1.15–1.19ºC
$37,109 Vol.
1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$23,001 Vol.
<1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$20,400 Vol.
<1%
>1.29ºC
$26,403 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus places overwhelming 97% implied probability on a May 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.14°C, consistent with the established long-term warming trajectory from greenhouse gas forcing and recent neutral-to-weak ENSO conditions observed by NOAA. Official surface temperature records and climate model ensembles show this narrow band as the expected continuation of multi-year trends, with May anomalies typically aligning closely to annual averages absent major volcanic or oceanic disruptions. Key upcoming data releases from monitoring agencies will confirm final values, though short-term variability in atmospheric patterns could still nudge outcomes toward adjacent ranges if late adjustments occur.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercato aperto: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Volume
$192,166Data di fine
10 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus places overwhelming 97% implied probability on a May 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.14°C, consistent with the established long-term warming trajectory from greenhouse gas forcing and recent neutral-to-weak ENSO conditions observed by NOAA. Official surface temperature records and climate model ensembles show this narrow band as the expected continuation of multi-year trends, with May anomalies typically aligning closely to annual averages absent major volcanic or oceanic disruptions. Key upcoming data releases from monitoring agencies will confirm final values, though short-term variability in atmospheric patterns could still nudge outcomes toward adjacent ranges if late adjustments occur.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$192,166Data di fine
10 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus places overwhelming 97% implied probability on a May 2026 global temperature anomaly of 1.10–1.14°C, consistent with the established long-term warming trajectory from greenhouse gas forcing and recent neutral-to-weak ENSO conditions observed by NOAA. Official surface temperature records and climate model ensembles show this narrow band as the expected continuation of multi-year trends, with May anomalies typically aligning closely to annual averages absent major volcanic or oceanic disruptions. Key upcoming data releases from monitoring agencies will confirm final values, though short-term variability in atmospheric patterns could still nudge outcomes toward adjacent ranges if late adjustments occur.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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