The September 2026 FOMC meeting delivered the expected 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range, shifting focus to the October 27–28 and December 8–9 decisions. Recent cooler inflation prints, including August PCE at 3.4% year-over-year, combined with the weak September jobs report showing just 29,000 payroll gains and unemployment rising to 4.2%, have reduced October hike odds sharply while reinforcing expectations for a December move. Fed communications emphasize data dependence and upside inflation risks amid a still-resilient labor market near 4.1–4.2% unemployment, aligning with the dot plot’s median 4.1% year-end projection. Upcoming October CPI, November employment data, and the December projections will shape the final path.