Recent U.S. economic data have kept Federal Reserve rate-path probabilities tightly contested for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings. The August employment report showed 162,000 jobs added with unemployment steady at 4.1 percent, while July CPI registered 3.4 percent year-over-year, supporting market-implied odds that favor holding the 3.50–3.75 percent target range across all three gatherings at 25.5 percent. Yet hawkish June projections, with nine officials expecting at least one hike by year-end, combined with resilient labor conditions and elevated inflation readings, underpin meaningful pricing for single or multiple 25-basis-point increases. Traders are closely watching the September 11 CPI release and the September 16 FOMC decision for signals on whether supply-driven price pressures or policy caution under Chair Warsh will shift the balance toward tightening.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPausa–pausa–pausa 26%
Aumento–Pausa–Pausa 18%
Pausa–Pausa–Aumento 14%
Pausa–Aumento–Pausa 11.9%
$11,703 Vol.
$11,703 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Aumento–Pausa–Aumento
8%
Aumento–Pausa–Pausa
18%
Aumento–Aumento–Aumento
5%
Rialzo–Rialzo–Pausa
8%
Pausa–Pausa–Aumento
14%
Pausa–pausa–pausa
26%
Pausa–Aumento–Aumento
11%
Pausa–Aumento–Pausa
12%
Altro
8%
Pausa–pausa–pausa 26%
Aumento–Pausa–Pausa 18%
Pausa–Pausa–Aumento 14%
Pausa–Aumento–Pausa 11.9%
$11,703 Vol.
$11,703 Vol.
9 dic 2026
Aumento–Pausa–Aumento
$314 Vol.
8%
Aumento–Pausa–Pausa
$489 Vol.
18%
Aumento–Aumento–Aumento
$216 Vol.
5%
Rialzo–Rialzo–Pausa
$429 Vol.
8%
Pausa–Pausa–Aumento
$253 Vol.
14%
Pausa–pausa–pausa
$9,180 Vol.
26%
Pausa–Aumento–Aumento
$237 Vol.
11%
Pausa–Aumento–Pausa
$336 Vol.
12%
Altro
$249 Vol.
8%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. economic data have kept Federal Reserve rate-path probabilities tightly contested for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings. The August employment report showed 162,000 jobs added with unemployment steady at 4.1 percent, while July CPI registered 3.4 percent year-over-year, supporting market-implied odds that favor holding the 3.50–3.75 percent target range across all three gatherings at 25.5 percent. Yet hawkish June projections, with nine officials expecting at least one hike by year-end, combined with resilient labor conditions and elevated inflation readings, underpin meaningful pricing for single or multiple 25-basis-point increases. Traders are closely watching the September 11 CPI release and the September 16 FOMC decision for signals on whether supply-driven price pressures or policy caution under Chair Warsh will shift the balance toward tightening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercato aperto: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$11,703Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent U.S. economic data have kept Federal Reserve rate-path probabilities tightly contested for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings. The August employment report showed 162,000 jobs added with unemployment steady at 4.1 percent, while July CPI registered 3.4 percent year-over-year, supporting market-implied odds that favor holding the 3.50–3.75 percent target range across all three gatherings at 25.5 percent. Yet hawkish June projections, with nine officials expecting at least one hike by year-end, combined with resilient labor conditions and elevated inflation readings, underpin meaningful pricing for single or multiple 25-basis-point increases. Traders are closely watching the September 11 CPI release and the September 16 FOMC decision for signals on whether supply-driven price pressures or policy caution under Chair Warsh will shift the balance toward tightening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$11,703Data di fine
9 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. economic data have kept Federal Reserve rate-path probabilities tightly contested for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings. The August employment report showed 162,000 jobs added with unemployment steady at 4.1 percent, while July CPI registered 3.4 percent year-over-year, supporting market-implied odds that favor holding the 3.50–3.75 percent target range across all three gatherings at 25.5 percent. Yet hawkish June projections, with nine officials expecting at least one hike by year-end, combined with resilient labor conditions and elevated inflation readings, underpin meaningful pricing for single or multiple 25-basis-point increases. Traders are closely watching the September 11 CPI release and the September 16 FOMC decision for signals on whether supply-driven price pressures or policy caution under Chair Warsh will shift the balance toward tightening.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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