The September 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00% range, backed by a unanimous vote and dot-plot signals for one additional increase by year-end, established the baseline for current trader pricing on the remaining 2026 meetings. Minutes released October 7 highlighted divided rationales for the move—precautionary insurance against supply shocks versus demand-driven risks—while most participants viewed further tightening as likely appropriate before December, though without urgency for the October 28 gathering. Softer-than-expected August PCE inflation (0.3% monthly, 3.4% year-over-year) and cooler labor data have reinforced expectations of an October pause, with market-implied odds favoring a December hike amid still-elevated inflation readings above the 2% target. Upcoming catalysts include the October jobs report and September CPI release, which will shape whether the path stays at hike-pause-hike or shifts toward additional pauses.