The treaty-based architecture of the European Union, requiring coordinated action among all 27 member states for any fundamental change, combined with the absence of any official withdrawal notifications or treaty-repeal proposals, underpins the near-certain trader consensus against dissolution by December 31, 2026. Recent national elections and policy debates have centered on internal reforms—such as adjustments to the foreign policy apparatus and budget negotiations—rather than existential challenges, while economic integration through the single market and eurozone continues to anchor stability. Historical resilience to crises has further reinforced expectations. Low-probability shifts remain possible only through unprecedented synchronized exits or a sudden multilateral agreement to nullify core treaties, though no such developments appear on the immediate horizon.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'UE si dissolve prima del 2027?
L'UE si dissolve prima del 2027?
Sì
1% probabilità
$180,387 Vol.
$180,387 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
1% probabilità
$180,387 Vol.
$180,387 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The treaty-based architecture of the European Union, requiring coordinated action among all 27 member states for any fundamental change, combined with the absence of any official withdrawal notifications or treaty-repeal proposals, underpins the near-certain trader consensus against dissolution by December 31, 2026. Recent national elections and policy debates have centered on internal reforms—such as adjustments to the foreign policy apparatus and budget negotiations—rather than existential challenges, while economic integration through the single market and eurozone continues to anchor stability. Historical resilience to crises has further reinforced expectations. Low-probability shifts remain possible only through unprecedented synchronized exits or a sudden multilateral agreement to nullify core treaties, though no such developments appear on the immediate horizon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$180,387Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The treaty-based architecture of the European Union, requiring coordinated action among all 27 member states for any fundamental change, combined with the absence of any official withdrawal notifications or treaty-repeal proposals, underpins the near-certain trader consensus against dissolution by December 31, 2026. Recent national elections and policy debates have centered on internal reforms—such as adjustments to the foreign policy apparatus and budget negotiations—rather than existential challenges, while economic integration through the single market and eurozone continues to anchor stability. Historical resilience to crises has further reinforced expectations. Low-probability shifts remain possible only through unprecedented synchronized exits or a sudden multilateral agreement to nullify core treaties, though no such developments appear on the immediate horizon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the European Union (EU) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The European Union will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
1) More than half of the EU member states (as of market creation) formally withdraw from the EU.
2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all EU member states to repeal or nullify the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.
3) The European Union otherwise ceases to exist as a legal entity.
EU member states will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$180,387Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Dec 7, 2025, 6:21 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...The treaty-based architecture of the European Union, requiring coordinated action among all 27 member states for any fundamental change, combined with the absence of any official withdrawal notifications or treaty-repeal proposals, underpins the near-certain trader consensus against dissolution by December 31, 2026. Recent national elections and policy debates have centered on internal reforms—such as adjustments to the foreign policy apparatus and budget negotiations—rather than existential challenges, while economic integration through the single market and eurozone continues to anchor stability. Historical resilience to crises has further reinforced expectations. Low-probability shifts remain possible only through unprecedented synchronized exits or a sudden multilateral agreement to nullify core treaties, though no such developments appear on the immediate horizon.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
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