OPEC continues to function through regular ministerial meetings and production quota decisions among its remaining 11 member states, including recent agreements on October 2026 output levels and preparations for 2027 capacity reviews, even after the UAE's May departure and amid Iraq's quota demands plus Venezuela's reported considerations. The ongoing Iran conflict has disrupted exports and shifted market dynamics but has not prompted dissolution talks, with core producers maintaining coordination via OPEC+ mechanisms involving Russia and others. Trader consensus at 96.9% against dissolution reflects this institutional continuity and historical pattern of adaptation following prior exits. Late-year developments, such as additional major withdrawals or a breakdown in quota negotiations, remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before December 31.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'OPEC si scioglie nel 2026?
L'OPEC si scioglie nel 2026?
Sì
3% probabilità
$35,205 Vol.
$35,205 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
3% probabilità
$35,205 Vol.
$35,205 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC continues to function through regular ministerial meetings and production quota decisions among its remaining 11 member states, including recent agreements on October 2026 output levels and preparations for 2027 capacity reviews, even after the UAE's May departure and amid Iraq's quota demands plus Venezuela's reported considerations. The ongoing Iran conflict has disrupted exports and shifted market dynamics but has not prompted dissolution talks, with core producers maintaining coordination via OPEC+ mechanisms involving Russia and others. Trader consensus at 96.9% against dissolution reflects this institutional continuity and historical pattern of adaptation following prior exits. Late-year developments, such as additional major withdrawals or a breakdown in quota negotiations, remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$35,205Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC continues to function through regular ministerial meetings and production quota decisions among its remaining 11 member states, including recent agreements on October 2026 output levels and preparations for 2027 capacity reviews, even after the UAE's May departure and amid Iraq's quota demands plus Venezuela's reported considerations. The ongoing Iran conflict has disrupted exports and shifted market dynamics but has not prompted dissolution talks, with core producers maintaining coordination via OPEC+ mechanisms involving Russia and others. Trader consensus at 96.9% against dissolution reflects this institutional continuity and historical pattern of adaptation following prior exits. Late-year developments, such as additional major withdrawals or a breakdown in quota negotiations, remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$35,205Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...OPEC continues to function through regular ministerial meetings and production quota decisions among its remaining 11 member states, including recent agreements on October 2026 output levels and preparations for 2027 capacity reviews, even after the UAE's May departure and amid Iraq's quota demands plus Venezuela's reported considerations. The ongoing Iran conflict has disrupted exports and shifted market dynamics but has not prompted dissolution talks, with core producers maintaining coordination via OPEC+ mechanisms involving Russia and others. Trader consensus at 96.9% against dissolution reflects this institutional continuity and historical pattern of adaptation following prior exits. Late-year developments, such as additional major withdrawals or a breakdown in quota negotiations, remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before December 31.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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