Despite the United Arab Emirates' May 2026 exit from OPEC and OPEC+, which sparked breakup speculation amid Gulf tensions and an Iran-related energy crisis, the organization's 93.5% market-implied probability of survival through year-end rests on sustained coordination by core producers. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others have continued monthly ministerial meetings, with June 2026 production adjustments of 188,000 barrels per day reaffirming quota discipline and market-stability goals, alongside ongoing demand forecasts. This operational continuity, backed by real capital in prediction markets, reflects traders' assessment that full dissolution faces high barriers from entrenched supply-management incentives. However, further defections or escalated regional conflicts could still introduce volatility and test the cartel's cohesion.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoOPEC dissolves in 2026?
OPEC dissolves in 2026?
$29,586 Vol.
$29,586 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$29,586 Vol.
$29,586 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Despite the United Arab Emirates' May 2026 exit from OPEC and OPEC+, which sparked breakup speculation amid Gulf tensions and an Iran-related energy crisis, the organization's 93.5% market-implied probability of survival through year-end rests on sustained coordination by core producers. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others have continued monthly ministerial meetings, with June 2026 production adjustments of 188,000 barrels per day reaffirming quota discipline and market-stability goals, alongside ongoing demand forecasts. This operational continuity, backed by real capital in prediction markets, reflects traders' assessment that full dissolution faces high barriers from entrenched supply-management incentives. However, further defections or escalated regional conflicts could still introduce volatility and test the cartel's cohesion.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
Volume
$29,586Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Despite the United Arab Emirates' May 2026 exit from OPEC and OPEC+, which sparked breakup speculation amid Gulf tensions and an Iran-related energy crisis, the organization's 93.5% market-implied probability of survival through year-end rests on sustained coordination by core producers. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others have continued monthly ministerial meetings, with June 2026 production adjustments of 188,000 barrels per day reaffirming quota discipline and market-stability goals, alongside ongoing demand forecasts. This operational continuity, backed by real capital in prediction markets, reflects traders' assessment that full dissolution faces high barriers from entrenched supply-management incentives. However, further defections or escalated regional conflicts could still introduce volatility and test the cartel's cohesion.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$29,586Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite the United Arab Emirates' May 2026 exit from OPEC and OPEC+, which sparked breakup speculation amid Gulf tensions and an Iran-related energy crisis, the organization's 93.5% market-implied probability of survival through year-end rests on sustained coordination by core producers. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others have continued monthly ministerial meetings, with June 2026 production adjustments of 188,000 barrels per day reaffirming quota discipline and market-stability goals, alongside ongoing demand forecasts. This operational continuity, backed by real capital in prediction markets, reflects traders' assessment that full dissolution faces high barriers from entrenched supply-management incentives. However, further defections or escalated regional conflicts could still introduce volatility and test the cartel's cohesion.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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