Recent developments center on the United Arab Emirates' departure from OPEC effective May 1, 2026, following prolonged quota disagreements and a strategic review of production policy. This exit, the latest after Angola in 2024 and Qatar in 2019, reduced the group's active membership to 11 and its share of global crude output. Since then, remaining members including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and others have held joint OPEC+ meetings, adjusted voluntary cuts, and publicly reaffirmed commitments to coordinated output and market stability. No additional member states have announced exits, signaled quota conflicts, or pursued independent production strategies in the ensuing months. Trader consensus reflected in the 90% probability for no further departures this year aligns with the absence of new catalysts and the group's demonstrated cohesion through mid-2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWill another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
10% probabilità
$159,687 Vol.
$159,687 Vol.
31 dic 2026
10% probabilità
$159,687 Vol.
$159,687 Vol.
31 dic 2026
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent developments center on the United Arab Emirates' departure from OPEC effective May 1, 2026, following prolonged quota disagreements and a strategic review of production policy. This exit, the latest after Angola in 2024 and Qatar in 2019, reduced the group's active membership to 11 and its share of global crude output. Since then, remaining members including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and others have held joint OPEC+ meetings, adjusted voluntary cuts, and publicly reaffirmed commitments to coordinated output and market stability. No additional member states have announced exits, signaled quota conflicts, or pursued independent production strategies in the ensuing months. Trader consensus reflected in the 90% probability for no further departures this year aligns with the absence of new catalysts and the group's demonstrated cohesion through mid-2026.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
Volume
$159,687Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent developments center on the United Arab Emirates' departure from OPEC effective May 1, 2026, following prolonged quota disagreements and a strategic review of production policy. This exit, the latest after Angola in 2024 and Qatar in 2019, reduced the group's active membership to 11 and its share of global crude output. Since then, remaining members including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and others have held joint OPEC+ meetings, adjusted voluntary cuts, and publicly reaffirmed commitments to coordinated output and market stability. No additional member states have announced exits, signaled quota conflicts, or pursued independent production strategies in the ensuing months. Trader consensus reflected in the 90% probability for no further departures this year aligns with the absence of new catalysts and the group's demonstrated cohesion through mid-2026.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$159,687Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent developments center on the United Arab Emirates' departure from OPEC effective May 1, 2026, following prolonged quota disagreements and a strategic review of production policy. This exit, the latest after Angola in 2024 and Qatar in 2019, reduced the group's active membership to 11 and its share of global crude output. Since then, remaining members including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and others have held joint OPEC+ meetings, adjusted voluntary cuts, and publicly reaffirmed commitments to coordinated output and market stability. No additional member states have announced exits, signaled quota conflicts, or pursued independent production strategies in the ensuing months. Trader consensus reflected in the 90% probability for no further departures this year aligns with the absence of new catalysts and the group's demonstrated cohesion through mid-2026.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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