**Nigel Farage triggered and won the Clacton by-election on 13 August 2026 after resigning in July amid a parliamentary standards probe into an undeclared £5 million gift.** He returned as Reform UK MP with 63.3% of the vote against novelty candidate Count Binface and 32 others, as major parties boycotted the contest. The investigation resumed immediately after his victory, raising the theoretical prospect of suspension, a recall petition, and a further by-election if rules were breached. However, the standards process, any potential Commons suspension, and recall thresholds involve extended timelines with no confirmed breach or timetable for resolution by year-end. No other vacancy triggers have emerged, supporting trader consensus that another Clacton by-election remains unlikely before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
20% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
Sì
20% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Nigel Farage triggered and won the Clacton by-election on 13 August 2026 after resigning in July amid a parliamentary standards probe into an undeclared £5 million gift.** He returned as Reform UK MP with 63.3% of the vote against novelty candidate Count Binface and 32 others, as major parties boycotted the contest. The investigation resumed immediately after his victory, raising the theoretical prospect of suspension, a recall petition, and a further by-election if rules were breached. However, the standards process, any potential Commons suspension, and recall thresholds involve extended timelines with no confirmed breach or timetable for resolution by year-end. No other vacancy triggers have emerged, supporting trader consensus that another Clacton by-election remains unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ET
Volume
$184Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Nigel Farage triggered and won the Clacton by-election on 13 August 2026 after resigning in July amid a parliamentary standards probe into an undeclared £5 million gift.** He returned as Reform UK MP with 63.3% of the vote against novelty candidate Count Binface and 32 others, as major parties boycotted the contest. The investigation resumed immediately after his victory, raising the theoretical prospect of suspension, a recall petition, and a further by-election if rules were breached. However, the standards process, any potential Commons suspension, and recall thresholds involve extended timelines with no confirmed breach or timetable for resolution by year-end. No other vacancy triggers have emerged, supporting trader consensus that another Clacton by-election remains unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Writs issued in connection with a United Kingdom general election will not qualify.
The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$184Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Aug 18, 2026, 3:44 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...**Nigel Farage triggered and won the Clacton by-election on 13 August 2026 after resigning in July amid a parliamentary standards probe into an undeclared £5 million gift.** He returned as Reform UK MP with 63.3% of the vote against novelty candidate Count Binface and 32 others, as major parties boycotted the contest. The investigation resumed immediately after his victory, raising the theoretical prospect of suspension, a recall petition, and a further by-election if rules were breached. However, the standards process, any potential Commons suspension, and recall thresholds involve extended timelines with no confirmed breach or timetable for resolution by year-end. No other vacancy triggers have emerged, supporting trader consensus that another Clacton by-election remains unlikely before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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