North Korea’s insistence on major shifts in U.S. policy—including acceptance of its nuclear status and removal of what it terms hostile measures—continues to block any path to a leader visit to American soil in 2026. Despite President Trump’s repeated public outreach, scaled-back joint exercises with South Korea, and speculation around possible late-year meetings at events such as the G20, Pyongyang has dismissed these gestures as insufficient and issued frosty responses through senior officials. Recent missile launches, expansion of uranium enrichment capacity, and strengthened coordination with China and Russia have further signaled that engagement on U.S. terms is not a priority. Trader consensus at 97 percent reflects these structural barriers, though an abrupt policy concession or last-minute summit arrangement before year-end remains a narrow theoretical pathway.