President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s current term runs until 2028 under Turkey’s constitution, with no scheduled election or term-limit trigger before then. Recent May 2026 court rulings that removed the main opposition CHP leadership and prompted police actions at party headquarters have further consolidated his position by disrupting the strongest electoral challenger. Public statements from Erdoğan and his party continue to focus on completing the term without signals of early departure or health-related incapacity. These factors underpin trader consensus that the probability of him leaving office by December 31, 2026 remains low absent an unforeseen constitutional crisis or snap election called for other reasons.