Turkish officials have confirmed plans to hold the next presidential election in 2028, with statements from the justice minister and a top presidential adviser indicating it could occur on April 16 to enable Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s candidacy for another term by triggering an early vote provision. The ruling alliance controls 326 of 600 parliamentary seats and would need 34 additional votes to reach the 360 threshold for an early election, while opposition parties remain divided amid legal actions against figures like Ekrem İmamoğlu. A recent cabinet reshuffle has fueled speculation about longer-term succession planning, but no developments point to an exit before year-end. These factors align with trader consensus pricing a low probability of Erdoğan leaving office by December 31, 2026, absent major unforeseen shifts in parliamentary support or institutional pressure.