Erdoğan’s current presidential term, secured in the 2023 election, extends through May 2028 under Turkey’s constitution, creating a structural barrier to any exit before the end of 2026 absent resignation, incapacity, or an early election. The ruling AKP has repeatedly rejected snap polls for 2026, and parliament lacks the supermajority needed to advance the date without opposition support. Recent May 2026 court rulings that ousted the main opposition CHP leadership have further consolidated institutional control rather than prompting any leadership transition. While economic pressures and opposition fragmentation persist, no verified health events, constitutional amendments, or formal removal processes have emerged to alter the timeline, aligning with trader consensus reflected in the elevated probability on “No.”