Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin split, with 1.9%–2.2% year-over-year GDP growth (46.8% implied probability) edging out 1.5%–1.8% (41.5%), driven by the Central Bank's IBC-Br index showing sequential gains of 0.8% in January and 0.6% in February 2026—signaling moderate Q1 recovery after 2025's slowdown. This tilts sentiment toward the higher bin amid resilient formal employment and IMF's upgraded full-year 2026 forecast to 1.9%, though rising March CPI at 4.1% year-over-year, flat services PMI at 50.1, and Copom's cautious 25 basis point Selic cut to 14.75% cap upside risks from fiscal pressures. March IBC-Br data and IBGE's late-May release remain pivotal swing factors.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCrescita del PIL del Brasile nel primo trimestre del 2026?
Crescita del PIL del Brasile nel primo trimestre del 2026?
1,9%–2,2% 46.8%
1,5%–1,8% 42%
1,1%–1,4% 20.5%
≥2,7% 12.6%
$17,665 Vol.
$17,665 Vol.
29 mag 2026
<0,7%
1%
0,7%–1,0%
<1%
1,1%–1,4%
11%
1,5%–1,8%
42%
1,9%–2,2%
47%
2,3%–2,6%
2%
≥2,7%
13%
1,9%–2,2% 46.8%
1,5%–1,8% 42%
1,1%–1,4% 20.5%
≥2,7% 12.6%
$17,665 Vol.
$17,665 Vol.
29 mag 2026
<0,7%
$13,927 Vol.
1%
0,7%–1,0%
$291 Vol.
<1%
1,1%–1,4%
$328 Vol.
11%
1,5%–1,8%
$717 Vol.
42%
1,9%–2,2%
$573 Vol.
47%
2,3%–2,6%
$292 Vol.
2%
≥2,7%
$1,537 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin split, with 1.9%–2.2% year-over-year GDP growth (46.8% implied probability) edging out 1.5%–1.8% (41.5%), driven by the Central Bank's IBC-Br index showing sequential gains of 0.8% in January and 0.6% in February 2026—signaling moderate Q1 recovery after 2025's slowdown. This tilts sentiment toward the higher bin amid resilient formal employment and IMF's upgraded full-year 2026 forecast to 1.9%, though rising March CPI at 4.1% year-over-year, flat services PMI at 50.1, and Copom's cautious 25 basis point Selic cut to 14.75% cap upside risks from fiscal pressures. March IBC-Br data and IBGE's late-May release remain pivotal swing factors.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Mercato aperto: Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ET
Volume
$17,665Data di fine
29 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlTrader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin split, with 1.9%–2.2% year-over-year GDP growth (46.8% implied probability) edging out 1.5%–1.8% (41.5%), driven by the Central Bank's IBC-Br index showing sequential gains of 0.8% in January and 0.6% in February 2026—signaling moderate Q1 recovery after 2025's slowdown. This tilts sentiment toward the higher bin amid resilient formal employment and IMF's upgraded full-year 2026 forecast to 1.9%, though rising March CPI at 4.1% year-over-year, flat services PMI at 50.1, and Copom's cautious 25 basis point Selic cut to 14.75% cap upside risks from fiscal pressures. March IBC-Br data and IBGE's late-May release remain pivotal swing factors.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Volume
$17,665Data di fine
29 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 23, 2026, 7:16 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a razor-thin split, with 1.9%–2.2% year-over-year GDP growth (46.8% implied probability) edging out 1.5%–1.8% (41.5%), driven by the Central Bank's IBC-Br index showing sequential gains of 0.8% in January and 0.6% in February 2026—signaling moderate Q1 recovery after 2025's slowdown. This tilts sentiment toward the higher bin amid resilient formal employment and IMF's upgraded full-year 2026 forecast to 1.9%, though rising March CPI at 4.1% year-over-year, flat services PMI at 50.1, and Copom's cautious 25 basis point Selic cut to 14.75% cap upside risks from fiscal pressures. March IBC-Br data and IBGE's late-May release remain pivotal swing factors.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti