The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook serves as the primary catalyst for current trader sentiment, downgrading 2026 global GDP growth to a baseline 3.1% from January's 3.3% projection, amid Middle East conflict disruptions comparable to the 1974 oil crisis, higher energy prices, and elevated inflation risks rising to 4.4%. Polymarket's aggregated trader consensus prices ≤2.9% at the highest implied probability of 37%, signaling skepticism on the baseline amid downside scenarios of 2.5% or lower if escalation occurs, while 3.0% (18.1%) and 3.1% (18.4%) trail closely, reflecting OECD's 2.9% interim view and resilient U.S. labor data. Key swing factors include conflict duration and Q2 inflation releases, with euro area and emerging market vulnerabilities amplifying uncertainty.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCrescita del PIL mondiale nel 2026
Crescita del PIL mondiale nel 2026
≤2,9% 24%
3,7%+ 11.2%
3,1% 6.8%
3,2% 5.1%
$15,701 Vol.
$15,701 Vol.
15 gen 2027
≤2,9%
37%
3,0%
18%
3,1%
18%
3,2%
5%
3,3%
1%
3,4%
1%
3,5%
5%
3,6%
1%
3,7%+
11%
≤2,9% 24%
3,7%+ 11.2%
3,1% 6.8%
3,2% 5.1%
$15,701 Vol.
$15,701 Vol.
15 gen 2027
≤2,9%
$3,737 Vol.
37%
3,0%
$405 Vol.
18%
3,1%
$368 Vol.
18%
3,2%
$1,553 Vol.
5%
3,3%
$1,899 Vol.
1%
3,4%
$3,526 Vol.
1%
3,5%
$2,991 Vol.
5%
3,6%
$452 Vol.
1%
3,7%+
$771 Vol.
11%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook serves as the primary catalyst for current trader sentiment, downgrading 2026 global GDP growth to a baseline 3.1% from January's 3.3% projection, amid Middle East conflict disruptions comparable to the 1974 oil crisis, higher energy prices, and elevated inflation risks rising to 4.4%. Polymarket's aggregated trader consensus prices ≤2.9% at the highest implied probability of 37%, signaling skepticism on the baseline amid downside scenarios of 2.5% or lower if escalation occurs, while 3.0% (18.1%) and 3.1% (18.4%) trail closely, reflecting OECD's 2.9% interim view and resilient U.S. labor data. Key swing factors include conflict duration and Q2 inflation releases, with euro area and emerging market vulnerabilities amplifying uncertainty.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercato aperto: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Volume
$15,701Data di fine
15 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook serves as the primary catalyst for current trader sentiment, downgrading 2026 global GDP growth to a baseline 3.1% from January's 3.3% projection, amid Middle East conflict disruptions comparable to the 1974 oil crisis, higher energy prices, and elevated inflation risks rising to 4.4%. Polymarket's aggregated trader consensus prices ≤2.9% at the highest implied probability of 37%, signaling skepticism on the baseline amid downside scenarios of 2.5% or lower if escalation occurs, while 3.0% (18.1%) and 3.1% (18.4%) trail closely, reflecting OECD's 2.9% interim view and resilient U.S. labor data. Key swing factors include conflict duration and Q2 inflation releases, with euro area and emerging market vulnerabilities amplifying uncertainty.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volume
$15,701Data di fine
15 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The IMF's April 2026 World Economic Outlook serves as the primary catalyst for current trader sentiment, downgrading 2026 global GDP growth to a baseline 3.1% from January's 3.3% projection, amid Middle East conflict disruptions comparable to the 1974 oil crisis, higher energy prices, and elevated inflation risks rising to 4.4%. Polymarket's aggregated trader consensus prices ≤2.9% at the highest implied probability of 37%, signaling skepticism on the baseline amid downside scenarios of 2.5% or lower if escalation occurs, while 3.0% (18.1%) and 3.1% (18.4%) trail closely, reflecting OECD's 2.9% interim view and resilient U.S. labor data. Key swing factors include conflict duration and Q2 inflation releases, with euro area and emerging market vulnerabilities amplifying uncertainty.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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