Recent Middle East energy shocks from the Iran conflict have elevated Brent crude above $100 per barrel, driving higher inflation and interest-rate pressures that weigh on global activity and support the market's elevated probabilities for 2026 GDP growth at or below 3.1%. Institutional forecasts reflect this tension, with UNCTAD projecting 2.6% for the year—down from 2.9% in 2025—while the IMF holds at 3% and the World Bank at 2.5%, citing trade fragmentation and potential AI-related corrections as additional risks. Asia's contribution, led by India's 7.3% and China's 4.5% expansion, provides a counterbalance through resilient domestic demand, yet elevated public debt near 100% of GDP and winter energy demand add downside uncertainty. The closely contested probabilities around 2.9–3.1% capture this balance ahead of updated IMF and World Bank outlooks due later this month.