Polymarket traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to positive US real GDP growth in 2026, driven by consensus forecasts from the FOMC's March projections (median 2.4%), Philadelphia Fed Survey (2.5%), and private economists averaging 2.2%, underscoring resilient consumer spending and labor market dynamics despite headwinds. Recent Q4 2025 GDP was revised to a sluggish 0.5% annualized on April 9, while Atlanta Fed's Q1 nowcast holds at 1.3%; March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year amid Iran-fueled energy shocks, yet unemployment remains stable near 4.3%. This strong conviction reflects the wisdom of crowds with real capital at stake, though risks include sustained inflation prompting tighter monetary policy, labor weakening, or a Q1 contraction ahead of the April 30 advance estimate.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCrescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Crescita negativa del PIL nel 2026?
Sì
$21,510 Vol.
$21,510 Vol.
29 gen 2027
Sì
$21,510 Vol.
$21,510 Vol.
29 gen 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to positive US real GDP growth in 2026, driven by consensus forecasts from the FOMC's March projections (median 2.4%), Philadelphia Fed Survey (2.5%), and private economists averaging 2.2%, underscoring resilient consumer spending and labor market dynamics despite headwinds. Recent Q4 2025 GDP was revised to a sluggish 0.5% annualized on April 9, while Atlanta Fed's Q1 nowcast holds at 1.3%; March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year amid Iran-fueled energy shocks, yet unemployment remains stable near 4.3%. This strong conviction reflects the wisdom of crowds with real capital at stake, though risks include sustained inflation prompting tighter monetary policy, labor weakening, or a Q1 contraction ahead of the April 30 advance estimate.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$21,510Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Polymarket traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to positive US real GDP growth in 2026, driven by consensus forecasts from the FOMC's March projections (median 2.4%), Philadelphia Fed Survey (2.5%), and private economists averaging 2.2%, underscoring resilient consumer spending and labor market dynamics despite headwinds. Recent Q4 2025 GDP was revised to a sluggish 0.5% annualized on April 9, while Atlanta Fed's Q1 nowcast holds at 1.3%; March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year amid Iran-fueled energy shocks, yet unemployment remains stable near 4.3%. This strong conviction reflects the wisdom of crowds with real capital at stake, though risks include sustained inflation prompting tighter monetary policy, labor weakening, or a Q1 contraction ahead of the April 30 advance estimate.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$21,510Data di fine
29 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to positive US real GDP growth in 2026, driven by consensus forecasts from the FOMC's March projections (median 2.4%), Philadelphia Fed Survey (2.5%), and private economists averaging 2.2%, underscoring resilient consumer spending and labor market dynamics despite headwinds. Recent Q4 2025 GDP was revised to a sluggish 0.5% annualized on April 9, while Atlanta Fed's Q1 nowcast holds at 1.3%; March CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year amid Iran-fueled energy shocks, yet unemployment remains stable near 4.3%. This strong conviction reflects the wisdom of crowds with real capital at stake, though risks include sustained inflation prompting tighter monetary policy, labor weakening, or a Q1 contraction ahead of the April 30 advance estimate.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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