Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91.2% implied probability for the Bank of Japan to hold rates steady at its April 26-27, 2026 monetary policy meeting, reflecting Governor Kazuo Ueda's April 17 remarks avoiding hike signals amid Japan's persistently low real rates despite nominal policy at 0.75%. This shift follows earlier hawkish bets—peaking near 70% for a 25 basis point increase—dampened by cooling core CPI at 1.3% in February and expected 1.8% in March, alongside Middle East geopolitical tensions elevating oil import costs and yen weakness near USD/JPY 159. Upside risks from hotter wage growth or yen depreciation below 160 could challenge the no-change stance ahead of the April 28 policy statement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNessun cambiamento 91.2%
Aumento di 25 punti base 8.0%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base <1%
Diminuzione dei tassi <1%
$785,258 Vol.
$785,258 Vol.
28 apr 2026
Diminuzione dei tassi
<1%
Nessun cambiamento
91%
Aumento di 25 punti base
8%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
<1%
Nessun cambiamento 91.2%
Aumento di 25 punti base 8.0%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base <1%
Diminuzione dei tassi <1%
$785,258 Vol.
$785,258 Vol.
28 apr 2026
Diminuzione dei tassi
$178,473 Vol.
<1%
Nessun cambiamento
$168,183 Vol.
91%
Aumento di 25 punti base
$166,006 Vol.
8%
Aumento di oltre 50 punti base
$272,600 Vol.
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91.2% implied probability for the Bank of Japan to hold rates steady at its April 26-27, 2026 monetary policy meeting, reflecting Governor Kazuo Ueda's April 17 remarks avoiding hike signals amid Japan's persistently low real rates despite nominal policy at 0.75%. This shift follows earlier hawkish bets—peaking near 70% for a 25 basis point increase—dampened by cooling core CPI at 1.3% in February and expected 1.8% in March, alongside Middle East geopolitical tensions elevating oil import costs and yen weakness near USD/JPY 159. Upside risks from hotter wage growth or yen depreciation below 160 could challenge the no-change stance ahead of the April 28 policy statement.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercato aperto: Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
Volume
$785,258Data di fine
28 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91.2% implied probability for the Bank of Japan to hold rates steady at its April 26-27, 2026 monetary policy meeting, reflecting Governor Kazuo Ueda's April 17 remarks avoiding hike signals amid Japan's persistently low real rates despite nominal policy at 0.75%. This shift follows earlier hawkish bets—peaking near 70% for a 25 basis point increase—dampened by cooling core CPI at 1.3% in February and expected 1.8% in March, alongside Middle East geopolitical tensions elevating oil import costs and yen weakness near USD/JPY 159. Upside risks from hotter wage growth or yen depreciation below 160 could challenge the no-change stance ahead of the April 28 policy statement.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for April is scheduled to be released on April 28, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's April 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$785,258Data di fine
28 apr 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 23, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 91.2% implied probability for the Bank of Japan to hold rates steady at its April 26-27, 2026 monetary policy meeting, reflecting Governor Kazuo Ueda's April 17 remarks avoiding hike signals amid Japan's persistently low real rates despite nominal policy at 0.75%. This shift follows earlier hawkish bets—peaking near 70% for a 25 basis point increase—dampened by cooling core CPI at 1.3% in February and expected 1.8% in March, alongside Middle East geopolitical tensions elevating oil import costs and yen weakness near USD/JPY 159. Upside risks from hotter wage growth or yen depreciation below 160 could challenge the no-change stance ahead of the April 28 policy statement.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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