Incumbent Henry Cuellar holds a commanding position in the TX-28 race due to his two-decade tenure, superior fundraising with roughly $657,000 cash on hand compared to Tano Tijerina’s $113,000, and consistent polling leads including a late October survey showing 54% to 34%. Redistricting by the Texas legislature in 2025 shifted the South Texas district slightly rightward while preserving its Democratic lean, and the resolution of Cuellar’s prior legal matters through a 2025 presidential pardon removed a major obstacle. Tijerina, the Webb County judge and recent Republican convert endorsed by Trump, Abbott, and Cruz, has narrowed gaps among some Hispanic voters but faces structural hurdles in a district where models project Cuellar winning by double digits. A late surge in Republican turnout or unexpected crossover erosion could narrow the margin on election night.