Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte leads the CA-23 top-two primary field ahead of the June 2, 2026, contest, buoyed by the district's R+9 Cook Partisan Voter Index and his dominant 2024 reelection with 60% of the vote. Strong fundraising—$1.45 million cash on hand as of late March—dwarfs Democratic challengers Tessa Lynn Hodge, Karsten Nicholson, and Pat Wallis, who hold under $13,000 combined. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican, with no party preference candidates unlikely to advance over Obernolte. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, pricing a GOP hold at 85.5% amid minimal recent developments beyond candidate filings.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCA-23 House Election Winner
CA-23 House Election Winner
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
86%
Democratic Party
14%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$7,090 Vol.
86%
Democratic Party
$2,338 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte leads the CA-23 top-two primary field ahead of the June 2, 2026, contest, buoyed by the district's R+9 Cook Partisan Voter Index and his dominant 2024 reelection with 60% of the vote. Strong fundraising—$1.45 million cash on hand as of late March—dwarfs Democratic challengers Tessa Lynn Hodge, Karsten Nicholson, and Pat Wallis, who hold under $13,000 combined. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican, with no party preference candidates unlikely to advance over Obernolte. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, pricing a GOP hold at 85.5% amid minimal recent developments beyond candidate filings.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$9,428Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte leads the CA-23 top-two primary field ahead of the June 2, 2026, contest, buoyed by the district's R+9 Cook Partisan Voter Index and his dominant 2024 reelection with 60% of the vote. Strong fundraising—$1.45 million cash on hand as of late March—dwarfs Democratic challengers Tessa Lynn Hodge, Karsten Nicholson, and Pat Wallis, who hold under $13,000 combined. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican, with no party preference candidates unlikely to advance over Obernolte. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, pricing a GOP hold at 85.5% amid minimal recent developments beyond candidate filings.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$9,428Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte leads the CA-23 top-two primary field ahead of the June 2, 2026, contest, buoyed by the district's R+9 Cook Partisan Voter Index and his dominant 2024 reelection with 60% of the vote. Strong fundraising—$1.45 million cash on hand as of late March—dwarfs Democratic challengers Tessa Lynn Hodge, Karsten Nicholson, and Pat Wallis, who hold under $13,000 combined. Forecasters rate the seat Solid Republican, with no party preference candidates unlikely to advance over Obernolte. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, pricing a GOP hold at 85.5% amid minimal recent developments beyond candidate filings.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan