The district’s post-redistricting partisan composition, with a clear Democratic voter registration and performance edge, underpins the 95% Democratic implied probability for the November 3, 2026 general election. Recent primary results show independent Kevin Kiley leading early returns, followed by Republican Michael Stansfield and Democrat Richard Pan, as Democratic candidates split support in the crowded field. Forecasters rate the seat solid or likely Democratic, consistent with historical patterns in similar California districts. A Democratic nominee advancing to face Kiley or another non-Democrat would face limited structural barriers absent major national shifts, scandals, or turnout anomalies that could narrow the margin in this low-Republican environment.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCA-06 House Election Winner
CA-06 House Election Winner
$31,768 Vol.
$31,768 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
3%
$31,768 Vol.
$31,768 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,101 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$20,667 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district’s post-redistricting partisan composition, with a clear Democratic voter registration and performance edge, underpins the 95% Democratic implied probability for the November 3, 2026 general election. Recent primary results show independent Kevin Kiley leading early returns, followed by Republican Michael Stansfield and Democrat Richard Pan, as Democratic candidates split support in the crowded field. Forecasters rate the seat solid or likely Democratic, consistent with historical patterns in similar California districts. A Democratic nominee advancing to face Kiley or another non-Democrat would face limited structural barriers absent major national shifts, scandals, or turnout anomalies that could narrow the margin in this low-Republican environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$31,768Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district’s post-redistricting partisan composition, with a clear Democratic voter registration and performance edge, underpins the 95% Democratic implied probability for the November 3, 2026 general election. Recent primary results show independent Kevin Kiley leading early returns, followed by Republican Michael Stansfield and Democrat Richard Pan, as Democratic candidates split support in the crowded field. Forecasters rate the seat solid or likely Democratic, consistent with historical patterns in similar California districts. A Democratic nominee advancing to face Kiley or another non-Democrat would face limited structural barriers absent major national shifts, scandals, or turnout anomalies that could narrow the margin in this low-Republican environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$31,768Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district’s post-redistricting partisan composition, with a clear Democratic voter registration and performance edge, underpins the 95% Democratic implied probability for the November 3, 2026 general election. Recent primary results show independent Kevin Kiley leading early returns, followed by Republican Michael Stansfield and Democrat Richard Pan, as Democratic candidates split support in the crowded field. Forecasters rate the seat solid or likely Democratic, consistent with historical patterns in similar California districts. A Democratic nominee advancing to face Kiley or another non-Democrat would face limited structural barriers absent major national shifts, scandals, or turnout anomalies that could narrow the margin in this low-Republican environment.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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