Incumbent Rep. Dave Min (D) commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability of a Democratic hold in California's 47th Congressional District, driven by the district's D+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index—where Harris won by 10 points—and his fundraising dominance with $2.96 million raised through Q1 2026, dwarfing challengers. The June 2 top-two primary features a fragmented Republican field including Jenny Rae Le Roux, Michael Maxsenti, and independent Eric Troutman, likely ensuring Min's advancement alongside a weaker opponent. Cook rates it Likely D. Late GOP entrant Le Roux risks further vote-splitting, per March analyses. A unified strong Republican nominee, midterm anti-incumbent wave, scandal, or legal issues could still challenge this outlook before the November 3 general election.
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CA-47 House Election Winner
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$811 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$109 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Dave Min (D) commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability of a Democratic hold in California's 47th Congressional District, driven by the district's D+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index—where Harris won by 10 points—and his fundraising dominance with $2.96 million raised through Q1 2026, dwarfing challengers. The June 2 top-two primary features a fragmented Republican field including Jenny Rae Le Roux, Michael Maxsenti, and independent Eric Troutman, likely ensuring Min's advancement alongside a weaker opponent. Cook rates it Likely D. Late GOP entrant Le Roux risks further vote-splitting, per March analyses. A unified strong Republican nominee, midterm anti-incumbent wave, scandal, or legal issues could still challenge this outlook before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$921Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Dave Min (D) commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability of a Democratic hold in California's 47th Congressional District, driven by the district's D+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index—where Harris won by 10 points—and his fundraising dominance with $2.96 million raised through Q1 2026, dwarfing challengers. The June 2 top-two primary features a fragmented Republican field including Jenny Rae Le Roux, Michael Maxsenti, and independent Eric Troutman, likely ensuring Min's advancement alongside a weaker opponent. Cook rates it Likely D. Late GOP entrant Le Roux risks further vote-splitting, per March analyses. A unified strong Republican nominee, midterm anti-incumbent wave, scandal, or legal issues could still challenge this outlook before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$921Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Dave Min (D) commands trader consensus at 92.5% implied probability of a Democratic hold in California's 47th Congressional District, driven by the district's D+6 Cook Partisan Voting Index—where Harris won by 10 points—and his fundraising dominance with $2.96 million raised through Q1 2026, dwarfing challengers. The June 2 top-two primary features a fragmented Republican field including Jenny Rae Le Roux, Michael Maxsenti, and independent Eric Troutman, likely ensuring Min's advancement alongside a weaker opponent. Cook rates it Likely D. Late GOP entrant Le Roux risks further vote-splitting, per March analyses. A unified strong Republican nominee, midterm anti-incumbent wave, scandal, or legal issues could still challenge this outlook before the November 3 general election.
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