US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm that Israeli and US airstrikes since Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 have inflicted lasting damage on Iran's nuclear facilities, including potential test sites like Taleghan, leaving the program stalled with no measurable progress toward weaponization—still estimated at 9-12 months away. IAEA reports from February-March highlight Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium and verification obstacles at damaged sites such as Natanz and Isfahan, but detect no activity consistent with a nuclear detonation. Amid ongoing US-Iran diplomacy over Strait of Hormuz control and sanctions relief, trader consensus prices a test before 2027 as highly improbable due to degraded infrastructure, heightened surveillance, and escalation risks, though covert rebuilding or regime shifts could alter this outlook.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$190,051 Vol.
$190,051 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$190,051 Vol.
$190,051 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm that Israeli and US airstrikes since Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 have inflicted lasting damage on Iran's nuclear facilities, including potential test sites like Taleghan, leaving the program stalled with no measurable progress toward weaponization—still estimated at 9-12 months away. IAEA reports from February-March highlight Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium and verification obstacles at damaged sites such as Natanz and Isfahan, but detect no activity consistent with a nuclear detonation. Amid ongoing US-Iran diplomacy over Strait of Hormuz control and sanctions relief, trader consensus prices a test before 2027 as highly improbable due to degraded infrastructure, heightened surveillance, and escalation risks, though covert rebuilding or regime shifts could alter this outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$190,051Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm that Israeli and US airstrikes since Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 have inflicted lasting damage on Iran's nuclear facilities, including potential test sites like Taleghan, leaving the program stalled with no measurable progress toward weaponization—still estimated at 9-12 months away. IAEA reports from February-March highlight Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium and verification obstacles at damaged sites such as Natanz and Isfahan, but detect no activity consistent with a nuclear detonation. Amid ongoing US-Iran diplomacy over Strait of Hormuz control and sanctions relief, trader consensus prices a test before 2027 as highly improbable due to degraded infrastructure, heightened surveillance, and escalation risks, though covert rebuilding or regime shifts could alter this outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$190,051Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from early May 2026 confirm that Israeli and US airstrikes since Operation Midnight Hammer in June 2025 have inflicted lasting damage on Iran's nuclear facilities, including potential test sites like Taleghan, leaving the program stalled with no measurable progress toward weaponization—still estimated at 9-12 months away. IAEA reports from February-March highlight Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium and verification obstacles at damaged sites such as Natanz and Isfahan, but detect no activity consistent with a nuclear detonation. Amid ongoing US-Iran diplomacy over Strait of Hormuz control and sanctions relief, trader consensus prices a test before 2027 as highly improbable due to degraded infrastructure, heightened surveillance, and escalation risks, though covert rebuilding or regime shifts could alter this outlook.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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