**US and Israeli airstrikes over the past year have crippled Iran's nuclear facilities, leaving key sites in ruins and severely limiting its capacity for uranium enrichment or weaponization, as confirmed by recent intelligence assessments.** IAEA reports from February and March 2026 highlight Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium but urge inspections amid restricted access, with no evidence of active testing preparations. In the last week, Iran proposed suspending enrichment for up to five years in ongoing US negotiations—a move rejected but signaling de-escalation—bolstering trader consensus at 92.5% "No" for a nuclear test before 2027. Late breakthroughs in covert rebuilding or diplomatic collapse could shift odds, though structural damage and monitoring pose high barriers.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$171,057 Vol.
$171,057 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$171,057 Vol.
$171,057 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**US and Israeli airstrikes over the past year have crippled Iran's nuclear facilities, leaving key sites in ruins and severely limiting its capacity for uranium enrichment or weaponization, as confirmed by recent intelligence assessments.** IAEA reports from February and March 2026 highlight Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium but urge inspections amid restricted access, with no evidence of active testing preparations. In the last week, Iran proposed suspending enrichment for up to five years in ongoing US negotiations—a move rejected but signaling de-escalation—bolstering trader consensus at 92.5% "No" for a nuclear test before 2027. Late breakthroughs in covert rebuilding or diplomatic collapse could shift odds, though structural damage and monitoring pose high barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$171,057Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**US and Israeli airstrikes over the past year have crippled Iran's nuclear facilities, leaving key sites in ruins and severely limiting its capacity for uranium enrichment or weaponization, as confirmed by recent intelligence assessments.** IAEA reports from February and March 2026 highlight Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium but urge inspections amid restricted access, with no evidence of active testing preparations. In the last week, Iran proposed suspending enrichment for up to five years in ongoing US negotiations—a move rejected but signaling de-escalation—bolstering trader consensus at 92.5% "No" for a nuclear test before 2027. Late breakthroughs in covert rebuilding or diplomatic collapse could shift odds, though structural damage and monitoring pose high barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$171,057Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**US and Israeli airstrikes over the past year have crippled Iran's nuclear facilities, leaving key sites in ruins and severely limiting its capacity for uranium enrichment or weaponization, as confirmed by recent intelligence assessments.** IAEA reports from February and March 2026 highlight Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium but urge inspections amid restricted access, with no evidence of active testing preparations. In the last week, Iran proposed suspending enrichment for up to five years in ongoing US negotiations—a move rejected but signaling de-escalation—bolstering trader consensus at 92.5% "No" for a nuclear test before 2027. Late breakthroughs in covert rebuilding or diplomatic collapse could shift odds, though structural damage and monitoring pose high barriers.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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