Iran's nuclear facilities suffered extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and March 2026, destroying or disabling most enrichment plants, centrifuges, and related infrastructure at sites including Natanz and Fordow while rendering weapons-development compounds inoperable. Satellite imagery from September and October 2026 shows renewed vehicle traffic, debris clearance, and repairs at the Minzadayi complex, signaling reconstruction priorities, yet no verifiable enrichment resumption or test preparations have emerged. The IAEA has lacked access since mid-2025, leaving stockpile status uncertain, while ongoing diplomatic channels and Iran's official non-weaponization stance reinforce trader views that a test remains improbable before 2027. A sudden policy reversal or unexpectedly rapid reconstitution of underground capabilities could still shift probabilities.