US and Israeli airstrikes in February-March 2026 severely damaged key Iranian nuclear facilities, including the Taleghan complex linked to potential testing and Natanz enrichment plants, per satellite imagery and IAEA assessments showing no radiation spikes but significant setbacks to weaponization capabilities. IAEA's February report noted Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but ongoing monitoring confirms no diversion toward a test amid reconstruction efforts. Recent diplomacy, with Iran agreeing May 3 to discuss capping enrichment at 3.5% in US talks, reflects de-escalation signals despite ceasefire strains and regime instability concerns. Traders' 90.5% "No" consensus reflects these barriers, though rapid breakout or failed negotiations could shift odds before 2027 resolution.
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Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$190,521 Vol.
$190,521 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$190,521 Vol.
$190,521 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes in February-March 2026 severely damaged key Iranian nuclear facilities, including the Taleghan complex linked to potential testing and Natanz enrichment plants, per satellite imagery and IAEA assessments showing no radiation spikes but significant setbacks to weaponization capabilities. IAEA's February report noted Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but ongoing monitoring confirms no diversion toward a test amid reconstruction efforts. Recent diplomacy, with Iran agreeing May 3 to discuss capping enrichment at 3.5% in US talks, reflects de-escalation signals despite ceasefire strains and regime instability concerns. Traders' 90.5% "No" consensus reflects these barriers, though rapid breakout or failed negotiations could shift odds before 2027 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$190,521Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes in February-March 2026 severely damaged key Iranian nuclear facilities, including the Taleghan complex linked to potential testing and Natanz enrichment plants, per satellite imagery and IAEA assessments showing no radiation spikes but significant setbacks to weaponization capabilities. IAEA's February report noted Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but ongoing monitoring confirms no diversion toward a test amid reconstruction efforts. Recent diplomacy, with Iran agreeing May 3 to discuss capping enrichment at 3.5% in US talks, reflects de-escalation signals despite ceasefire strains and regime instability concerns. Traders' 90.5% "No" consensus reflects these barriers, though rapid breakout or failed negotiations could shift odds before 2027 resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$190,521Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes in February-March 2026 severely damaged key Iranian nuclear facilities, including the Taleghan complex linked to potential testing and Natanz enrichment plants, per satellite imagery and IAEA assessments showing no radiation spikes but significant setbacks to weaponization capabilities. IAEA's February report noted Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium—near weapons-grade—but ongoing monitoring confirms no diversion toward a test amid reconstruction efforts. Recent diplomacy, with Iran agreeing May 3 to discuss capping enrichment at 3.5% in US talks, reflects de-escalation signals despite ceasefire strains and regime instability concerns. Traders' 90.5% "No" consensus reflects these barriers, though rapid breakout or failed negotiations could shift odds before 2027 resolution.
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