Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, pushing back any potential weaponization timeline to roughly nine to twelve months according to U.S. intelligence assessments as of May 2026. Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium remains largely buried or inaccessible, with no verified resumption of enrichment activities reported by the Director of National Intelligence through March. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks have focused on facility dismantlement and material removal, while IAEA inspectors lack access to major sites. These developments underpin the strong trader consensus favoring no nuclear test before 2027, though further escalation or covert recovery efforts could alter the outlook within the resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$202,145 Vol.
$202,145 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$202,145 Vol.
$202,145 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, pushing back any potential weaponization timeline to roughly nine to twelve months according to U.S. intelligence assessments as of May 2026. Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium remains largely buried or inaccessible, with no verified resumption of enrichment activities reported by the Director of National Intelligence through March. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks have focused on facility dismantlement and material removal, while IAEA inspectors lack access to major sites. These developments underpin the strong trader consensus favoring no nuclear test before 2027, though further escalation or covert recovery efforts could alter the outlook within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$202,145Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, pushing back any potential weaponization timeline to roughly nine to twelve months according to U.S. intelligence assessments as of May 2026. Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium remains largely buried or inaccessible, with no verified resumption of enrichment activities reported by the Director of National Intelligence through March. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks have focused on facility dismantlement and material removal, while IAEA inspectors lack access to major sites. These developments underpin the strong trader consensus favoring no nuclear test before 2027, though further escalation or covert recovery efforts could alter the outlook within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$202,145Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in 2025 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, pushing back any potential weaponization timeline to roughly nine to twelve months according to U.S. intelligence assessments as of May 2026. Iran's stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium remains largely buried or inaccessible, with no verified resumption of enrichment activities reported by the Director of National Intelligence through March. Ongoing U.S.-Iran talks have focused on facility dismantlement and material removal, while IAEA inspectors lack access to major sites. These developments underpin the strong trader consensus favoring no nuclear test before 2027, though further escalation or covert recovery efforts could alter the outlook within the resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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