Russian strategic missile forces conducted Yars ICBM drills on April 2 in Siberia—nuclear-capable systems involving camouflaged movements and launches but no explosive detonations—amid post-New START expiration tensions after February 5. Moscow announced plans in January for 2026 tests of new solid-fuel ICBMs to replace aging Topol-M missiles, focusing on delivery systems rather than warhead explosions. President Putin ordered nuclear test proposals in November 2025 following U.S. signals under Trump to potentially resume testing, yet Russia upholds a voluntary CTBT moratorium despite 2023 ratification withdrawal, stating it will not test first. Traders monitor Ukraine war escalation, U.S.-Russia arms control talks, and upcoming missile trials for detonation risks.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russian strategic missile forces conducted Yars ICBM drills on April 2 in Siberia—nuclear-capable systems involving camouflaged movements and launches but no explosive detonations—amid post-New START expiration tensions after February 5. Moscow announced plans in January for 2026 tests of new solid-fuel ICBMs to replace aging Topol-M missiles, focusing on delivery systems rather than warhead explosions. President Putin ordered nuclear test proposals in November 2025 following U.S. signals under Trump to potentially resume testing, yet Russia upholds a voluntary CTBT moratorium despite 2023 ratification withdrawal, stating it will not test first. Traders monitor Ukraine war escalation, U.S.-Russia arms control talks, and upcoming missile trials for detonation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volume
$1,343,106Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russian strategic missile forces conducted Yars ICBM drills on April 2 in Siberia—nuclear-capable systems involving camouflaged movements and launches but no explosive detonations—amid post-New START expiration tensions after February 5. Moscow announced plans in January for 2026 tests of new solid-fuel ICBMs to replace aging Topol-M missiles, focusing on delivery systems rather than warhead explosions. President Putin ordered nuclear test proposals in November 2025 following U.S. signals under Trump to potentially resume testing, yet Russia upholds a voluntary CTBT moratorium despite 2023 ratification withdrawal, stating it will not test first. Traders monitor Ukraine war escalation, U.S.-Russia arms control talks, and upcoming missile trials for detonation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,343,106Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russian strategic missile forces conducted Yars ICBM drills on April 2 in Siberia—nuclear-capable systems involving camouflaged movements and launches but no explosive detonations—amid post-New START expiration tensions after February 5. Moscow announced plans in January for 2026 tests of new solid-fuel ICBMs to replace aging Topol-M missiles, focusing on delivery systems rather than warhead explosions. President Putin ordered nuclear test proposals in November 2025 following U.S. signals under Trump to potentially resume testing, yet Russia upholds a voluntary CTBT moratorium despite 2023 ratification withdrawal, stating it will not test first. Traders monitor Ukraine war escalation, U.S.-Russia arms control talks, and upcoming missile trials for detonation risks.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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