Russia maintains its moratorium on full-scale nuclear explosive tests while advancing delivery systems like the Burevestnik cruise missile and Poseidon underwater drone, which officials explicitly distinguish from actual detonations. Recent U.S. statements on resuming testing have prompted Kremlin warnings of reciprocal action and internal proposals for preparations at sites such as Novaya Zemlya, yet no verified nuclear chain-reaction events have occurred. Large-scale civil defense drills near upgraded command facilities in the Urals and ongoing modernization of strategic forces reflect heightened readiness without crossing into live testing. Trader consensus prices low probabilities for a test by late 2026, reflecting the high barriers of international monitoring, treaty commitments, and escalation risks, with any shift likely tied to verifiable U.S. moves or official Russian announcements within the resolution window.