Putin’s March 2024 reelection to a six-year term, followed by his May inauguration and 2020 constitutional amendments resetting term limits, established a clear path for him to remain president through 2030 and potentially 2036. As of late May 2026, he continues to exercise direct authority through regular public engagements, Security Council meetings, state visits to Kazakhstan and China, and policy initiatives on Eurasian integration and artificial intelligence, with no visible signs of voluntary resignation, health-related incapacity, or elite-driven removal. The regime’s centralized control over security services and regional elites, reinforced by recent measures tightening personal protection amid coup concerns, further reduces near-term transition risks. Traders assign the “No” outcome a 90.5% implied probability because these structural and operational factors have produced sustained stability without the internal shocks that historically precede leadership changes. Late-breaking developments such as major health events or unprecedented elite fractures could still alter this assessment before the December 2026 cutoff.