The low implied probabilities in this market reflect the U.S. administration’s rapid clarification after President Trump’s October 2025 directive that testing would occur “on an equal basis” with other nations: subsequent statements from Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized non-explosive subcritical experiments, component checks, and stockpile stewardship activities at the Nevada National Security Site rather than any yield-producing detonation. No full-scale underground nuclear explosive test has occurred since 1992, and current programs continue to rely on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship initiative plus facilities such as the National Ignition Facility for modernization data. Technical readiness timelines, international diplomatic constraints, and the absence of confirmed preparations for explosive events have kept trader consensus aligned with continued restraint through the near-term resolution windows.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiUji coba nuklir AS oleh...?
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$795,366 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
30 September 2026
1%
31 Desember 2026
6%
$795,366 Vol.
30 September 2026
$57,635 Vol.
1%
31 Desember 2026
$76,920 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The low implied probabilities in this market reflect the U.S. administration’s rapid clarification after President Trump’s October 2025 directive that testing would occur “on an equal basis” with other nations: subsequent statements from Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized non-explosive subcritical experiments, component checks, and stockpile stewardship activities at the Nevada National Security Site rather than any yield-producing detonation. No full-scale underground nuclear explosive test has occurred since 1992, and current programs continue to rely on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship initiative plus facilities such as the National Ignition Facility for modernization data. Technical readiness timelines, international diplomatic constraints, and the absence of confirmed preparations for explosive events have kept trader consensus aligned with continued restraint through the near-term resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$795,366Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The low implied probabilities in this market reflect the U.S. administration’s rapid clarification after President Trump’s October 2025 directive that testing would occur “on an equal basis” with other nations: subsequent statements from Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized non-explosive subcritical experiments, component checks, and stockpile stewardship activities at the Nevada National Security Site rather than any yield-producing detonation. No full-scale underground nuclear explosive test has occurred since 1992, and current programs continue to rely on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship initiative plus facilities such as the National Ignition Facility for modernization data. Technical readiness timelines, international diplomatic constraints, and the absence of confirmed preparations for explosive events have kept trader consensus aligned with continued restraint through the near-term resolution windows.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$795,366Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The low implied probabilities in this market reflect the U.S. administration’s rapid clarification after President Trump’s October 2025 directive that testing would occur “on an equal basis” with other nations: subsequent statements from Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized non-explosive subcritical experiments, component checks, and stockpile stewardship activities at the Nevada National Security Site rather than any yield-producing detonation. No full-scale underground nuclear explosive test has occurred since 1992, and current programs continue to rely on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship initiative plus facilities such as the National Ignition Facility for modernization data. Technical readiness timelines, international diplomatic constraints, and the absence of confirmed preparations for explosive events have kept trader consensus aligned with continued restraint through the near-term resolution windows.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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