The U.S. has upheld a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying instead on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic testing, and science-based stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site to maintain warhead reliability. President Trump's late-2025 statements directing the Pentagon to resume testing "on an equal basis" with alleged Russian and Chinese activities briefly elevated market attention, yet Energy Department clarifications quickly limited any near-term steps to non-explosive or subcritical work. Recent Pentagon funding for test-site repairs in New Mexico has been tied to conventional live-fire validation for deep-underground strike capabilities rather than nuclear detonations. A ongoing internal nuclear posture review is examining expanded options, but no official schedule for full-yield explosive tests has been confirmed. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low implied probabilities to a U.S. nuclear test by late 2026, consistent with the absence of announced plans and the continued preference for non-explosive certification methods.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiUji coba nuklir AS oleh...?
Uji coba nuklir AS oleh...?
$795,441 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
30 September 2026
1%
31 Desember 2026
6%
$795,441 Vol.
30 September 2026
$57,710 Vol.
1%
31 Desember 2026
$76,920 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has upheld a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying instead on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic testing, and science-based stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site to maintain warhead reliability. President Trump's late-2025 statements directing the Pentagon to resume testing "on an equal basis" with alleged Russian and Chinese activities briefly elevated market attention, yet Energy Department clarifications quickly limited any near-term steps to non-explosive or subcritical work. Recent Pentagon funding for test-site repairs in New Mexico has been tied to conventional live-fire validation for deep-underground strike capabilities rather than nuclear detonations. A ongoing internal nuclear posture review is examining expanded options, but no official schedule for full-yield explosive tests has been confirmed. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low implied probabilities to a U.S. nuclear test by late 2026, consistent with the absence of announced plans and the continued preference for non-explosive certification methods.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$795,441Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. has upheld a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying instead on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic testing, and science-based stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site to maintain warhead reliability. President Trump's late-2025 statements directing the Pentagon to resume testing "on an equal basis" with alleged Russian and Chinese activities briefly elevated market attention, yet Energy Department clarifications quickly limited any near-term steps to non-explosive or subcritical work. Recent Pentagon funding for test-site repairs in New Mexico has been tied to conventional live-fire validation for deep-underground strike capabilities rather than nuclear detonations. A ongoing internal nuclear posture review is examining expanded options, but no official schedule for full-yield explosive tests has been confirmed. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low implied probabilities to a U.S. nuclear test by late 2026, consistent with the absence of announced plans and the continued preference for non-explosive certification methods.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$795,441Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. has upheld a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying instead on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic testing, and science-based stockpile stewardship at the Nevada National Security Site to maintain warhead reliability. President Trump's late-2025 statements directing the Pentagon to resume testing "on an equal basis" with alleged Russian and Chinese activities briefly elevated market attention, yet Energy Department clarifications quickly limited any near-term steps to non-explosive or subcritical work. Recent Pentagon funding for test-site repairs in New Mexico has been tied to conventional live-fire validation for deep-underground strike capabilities rather than nuclear detonations. A ongoing internal nuclear posture review is examining expanded options, but no official schedule for full-yield explosive tests has been confirmed. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing assigns low implied probabilities to a U.S. nuclear test by late 2026, consistent with the absence of announced plans and the continued preference for non-explosive certification methods.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan