President Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with rivals briefly elevated discussion of ending the 1992 moratorium, yet subsequent administration clarifications emphasized non-explosive or subcritical activities rather than full-yield detonations. Technical assessments indicate that preparing the Nevada National Security Site for an underground explosive test would require 18–36 months, while Congress has considered legislation mandating prior approval and Nevada lawmakers have passed resolutions opposing any resumption. The U.S. continues to rely on science-based stockpile stewardship programs that have sustained arsenal confidence without explosive testing, amid ongoing international pressure to uphold the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norm. These procedural, legal, and diplomatic constraints, combined with the absence of verified explosive tests by Russia or China in recent months, underpin trader consensus that near-term U.S. explosive testing remains improbable through 2026.
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$667,461 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
30 Juni 2026
2%
30 September 2026
6%
31 Desember 2026
9%
$667,461 Vol.
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$40,114 Vol.
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$6,656 Vol.
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$10,472 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with rivals briefly elevated discussion of ending the 1992 moratorium, yet subsequent administration clarifications emphasized non-explosive or subcritical activities rather than full-yield detonations. Technical assessments indicate that preparing the Nevada National Security Site for an underground explosive test would require 18–36 months, while Congress has considered legislation mandating prior approval and Nevada lawmakers have passed resolutions opposing any resumption. The U.S. continues to rely on science-based stockpile stewardship programs that have sustained arsenal confidence without explosive testing, amid ongoing international pressure to uphold the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norm. These procedural, legal, and diplomatic constraints, combined with the absence of verified explosive tests by Russia or China in recent months, underpin trader consensus that near-term U.S. explosive testing remains improbable through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$667,461Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with rivals briefly elevated discussion of ending the 1992 moratorium, yet subsequent administration clarifications emphasized non-explosive or subcritical activities rather than full-yield detonations. Technical assessments indicate that preparing the Nevada National Security Site for an underground explosive test would require 18–36 months, while Congress has considered legislation mandating prior approval and Nevada lawmakers have passed resolutions opposing any resumption. The U.S. continues to rely on science-based stockpile stewardship programs that have sustained arsenal confidence without explosive testing, amid ongoing international pressure to uphold the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norm. These procedural, legal, and diplomatic constraints, combined with the absence of verified explosive tests by Russia or China in recent months, underpin trader consensus that near-term U.S. explosive testing remains improbable through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$667,461Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 social media directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with rivals briefly elevated discussion of ending the 1992 moratorium, yet subsequent administration clarifications emphasized non-explosive or subcritical activities rather than full-yield detonations. Technical assessments indicate that preparing the Nevada National Security Site for an underground explosive test would require 18–36 months, while Congress has considered legislation mandating prior approval and Nevada lawmakers have passed resolutions opposing any resumption. The U.S. continues to rely on science-based stockpile stewardship programs that have sustained arsenal confidence without explosive testing, amid ongoing international pressure to uphold the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norm. These procedural, legal, and diplomatic constraints, combined with the absence of verified explosive tests by Russia or China in recent months, underpin trader consensus that near-term U.S. explosive testing remains improbable through 2026.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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