Trump administration officials in late March 2026 signaled potential resumption of underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site—the first since 1992—citing alleged Chinese low-yield testing and advances by Russia and China in nuclear capabilities, prompting preparations per reports from the Washington Times and Reuters. No test has occurred, with Energy Department assessments ongoing and arms control advocates emphasizing the U.S. stockpile stewardship program's success without explosions. Trader consensus prices a test by December 31, 2026, at just 9%, reflecting diplomatic hurdles under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, Nevada congressional opposition, and lack of scheduled detonations, though escalation in peer rivalries or intelligence revelations could shift odds ahead of year-end.
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$664,780 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
30 Juni 2026
2%
30 September 2026
6%
31 Desember 2026
9%
$664,780 Vol.
30 Juni 2026
$38,761 Vol.
2%
30 September 2026
$5,584 Vol.
6%
31 Desember 2026
$10,216 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trump administration officials in late March 2026 signaled potential resumption of underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site—the first since 1992—citing alleged Chinese low-yield testing and advances by Russia and China in nuclear capabilities, prompting preparations per reports from the Washington Times and Reuters. No test has occurred, with Energy Department assessments ongoing and arms control advocates emphasizing the U.S. stockpile stewardship program's success without explosions. Trader consensus prices a test by December 31, 2026, at just 9%, reflecting diplomatic hurdles under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, Nevada congressional opposition, and lack of scheduled detonations, though escalation in peer rivalries or intelligence revelations could shift odds ahead of year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$664,780Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trump administration officials in late March 2026 signaled potential resumption of underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site—the first since 1992—citing alleged Chinese low-yield testing and advances by Russia and China in nuclear capabilities, prompting preparations per reports from the Washington Times and Reuters. No test has occurred, with Energy Department assessments ongoing and arms control advocates emphasizing the U.S. stockpile stewardship program's success without explosions. Trader consensus prices a test by December 31, 2026, at just 9%, reflecting diplomatic hurdles under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, Nevada congressional opposition, and lack of scheduled detonations, though escalation in peer rivalries or intelligence revelations could shift odds ahead of year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$664,780Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump administration officials in late March 2026 signaled potential resumption of underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site—the first since 1992—citing alleged Chinese low-yield testing and advances by Russia and China in nuclear capabilities, prompting preparations per reports from the Washington Times and Reuters. No test has occurred, with Energy Department assessments ongoing and arms control advocates emphasizing the U.S. stockpile stewardship program's success without explosions. Trader consensus prices a test by December 31, 2026, at just 9%, reflecting diplomatic hurdles under the unratified Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty, Nevada congressional opposition, and lack of scheduled detonations, though escalation in peer rivalries or intelligence revelations could shift odds ahead of year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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