President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear explosive testing “on an equal basis” with China and Russia remains the central driver of market positioning, citing alleged foreign activity and ending the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992. No underground nuclear test has occurred at the Nevada National Security Site since that announcement. The most recent development, a September 30, 2026 non-nuclear chemical high-explosive experiment in the site’s P Tunnel, focused on refining detection of decoupled low-yield blasts rather than weapons validation. Resumption requires 24–36 months of preparation under current stockpile stewardship protocols, congressional funding decisions, and regulatory steps. Traders weigh these structural timelines against ongoing great-power signaling and any near-term policy shifts within the resolution window.