Trump administration rhetoric since late 2025 has fueled speculation about resuming underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site after a 34-year moratorium, citing alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia that challenge CTBT compliance. However, trader consensus prices the leading outcome—"December 31, 2026"—at just 9%, reflecting congressional pushback against funding, clarifications from Energy Secretary Wright that no explosive tests are imminent, and reliance on the stockpile stewardship program for warhead certification. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with arms control advocates urging blocks in FY2027 budget debates; escalation signals or DOE/NNSA announcements could shift odds.
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$664,793 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
30 Juni 2026
2%
30 September 2026
6%
31 Desember 2026
9%
$664,793 Vol.
30 Juni 2026
$38,774 Vol.
2%
30 September 2026
$5,584 Vol.
6%
31 Desember 2026
$10,216 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trump administration rhetoric since late 2025 has fueled speculation about resuming underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site after a 34-year moratorium, citing alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia that challenge CTBT compliance. However, trader consensus prices the leading outcome—"December 31, 2026"—at just 9%, reflecting congressional pushback against funding, clarifications from Energy Secretary Wright that no explosive tests are imminent, and reliance on the stockpile stewardship program for warhead certification. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with arms control advocates urging blocks in FY2027 budget debates; escalation signals or DOE/NNSA announcements could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Pasar Dibuka: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$664,793Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trump administration rhetoric since late 2025 has fueled speculation about resuming underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site after a 34-year moratorium, citing alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia that challenge CTBT compliance. However, trader consensus prices the leading outcome—"December 31, 2026"—at just 9%, reflecting congressional pushback against funding, clarifications from Energy Secretary Wright that no explosive tests are imminent, and reliance on the stockpile stewardship program for warhead certification. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with arms control advocates urging blocks in FY2027 budget debates; escalation signals or DOE/NNSA announcements could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$664,793Tanggal Berakhir
Mar 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trump administration rhetoric since late 2025 has fueled speculation about resuming underground nuclear tests at the Nevada National Security Site after a 34-year moratorium, citing alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia that challenge CTBT compliance. However, trader consensus prices the leading outcome—"December 31, 2026"—at just 9%, reflecting congressional pushback against funding, clarifications from Energy Secretary Wright that no explosive tests are imminent, and reliance on the stockpile stewardship program for warhead certification. No major developments have emerged in the past 30 days, with arms control advocates urging blocks in FY2027 budget debates; escalation signals or DOE/NNSA announcements could shift odds.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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