U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted Iran's nuclear enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, destroying much of its centrifuge capacity and related infrastructure while leaving a stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium under rubble or in contested locations. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments from early May 2026 indicate the timeline for Iran to produce a nuclear weapon, if it chose to pursue one, remains approximately nine to twelve months, with no confirmed resumption of enrichment activities. IAEA reporting notes the absence of evidence for an active weapons program alongside ongoing access restrictions. These developments underpin trader consensus that a completed device before 2027 faces substantial technical and operational barriers.